Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Abha Saudi Club: O/U 5.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 88¢ · $3K held · ended Sep 9
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$2.7K
-$70.34
90.9¢ → 88¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 94.8¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$98.84 | 58% 50268-36310 (86578) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 83¢ | $815.84 | $860.64 | +$49.14 | 58% 45427-32914 (78341) |
 RN1 | Underavg 95¢ | $515.17 | $498.2 | -$16.97 | 53% 60059-52427 (112486) |
MA MartyMcFoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 14¢ | $28 | $24 | -$4 | 67% 4563-2290 (6853) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Overavg 9¢ | $1 | $1.33 | +$0.33 | 35% 18146-33983 (52129) |
Invested
$1,381.18
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$98.84
Record
58%
50268-36310 (86578)
VeryLucky888Invested
$815.84
Value
$860.64
PnL
+$49.14
Record
58%
45427-32914 (78341)
RN1Invested
$515.17
Value
$498.2
PnL
-$16.97
Record
53%
60059-52427 (112486)
Invested
$28
Value
$24
PnL
-$4
Record
67%
4563-2290 (6853)
Invested
$1
Value
$1.33
PnL
+$0.33
Record
35%
18146-33983 (52129)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.