Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Khaleej Saudi Club: O/U 0.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 51¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 5

Over51¢Under49¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$804.28

Smart Money Entry

74.5¢ → 51¢

-32% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,933

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,779

Combined PnL+$367.95

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

65h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BA Bayupati	Overavg 79¢	$2.2K	$1.4K	-$804.04	49% 261-274 (535)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121CTR	Underavg 22.3¢	$302.2	$671.22	+$369.02	83% 89-18 (107)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 77.2¢	$695.22	$454.48	-$240.74	58% 46840-33772 (80612)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Underavg 50.5¢	$361.21	$354.08	-$5.48	34% 19319-36895 (56214)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 51.3¢	$330.91	$325.95	+$1.49	47% 11844-13618 (25462)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 51.1¢	$209.11	$202.41	-$1.59	51% 1929-1866 (3795)
US User7429	Overavg 78.9¢	$309.96	$198.4	-$111.56	56% 9127-7285 (16412)
DI dips.CTR	Underavg 48.1¢	$143.77	$148.03	+$6	47% 10679-12216 (22895)
FO forecastication4<$100	Overavg 55.8¢	$55.82	$50.5	-$5.32	50% 1388-1394 (2782)
E4 e46m3<$100	Over	$37.12	$37.12	-$12.05	67% 27537-13843 (41380)

Bayupati

Over

Invested

$2,228.76

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$804.04

Record

49%

261-274 (535)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121CTR

Under

Invested

$302.2

Value

$671.22

PnL

+$369.02

Record

83%

89-18 (107)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$695.22

Value

$454.48

PnL

-$240.74

Record

58%

46840-33772 (80612)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Under

Invested

$361.21

Value

$354.08

PnL

-$5.48

Record

34%

19319-36895 (56214)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$330.91

Value

$325.95

PnL

+$1.49

Record

47%

11844-13618 (25462)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$209.11

Value

$202.41

PnL

-$1.59

Record

51%

1929-1866 (3795)

User7429

Over

Invested

$309.96

Value

$198.4

PnL

-$111.56

Record

56%

9127-7285 (16412)

dips.CTR

Under

Invested

$143.77

Value

$148.03

PnL

+$6

Record

47%

10679-12216 (22895)

forecastication4<$100

Over

Invested

$55.82

Value

$50.5

PnL

-$5.32

Record

50%

1388-1394 (2782)

e46m3<$100

Over

Invested

$37.12

Value

$37.12

PnL

-$12.05

Record

67%

27537-13843 (41380)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

65h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.