Spread: Al Khaleej Saudi Club (-2.5)
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Al Kholood Saudi Club (43%) · Al Kholood Saudi Club at 54¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Al Kholood Saudi Club
7
Al Kholood Saudi Club 43%
$2.4K
$12.45
89.4¢ → 54¢
-40% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralAl Kholood Saudi Club at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
19h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
43% of non-arb traders are on Al Kholood Saudi Club. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PU purplegatto | Al Kholood Saudi Clubavg 90¢ | $1.9K | $1.2K | -$790.76 | 49% 6190-6320 (12510) |
JA JabJabichCTR | Al Khaleej Saudi Clubavg 10¢ | $216.65 | $996.57 | +$779.93 | 63% 179-106 (285) |
 0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121CTR<$100 | Al Khaleej Saudi Clubavg 41.4¢ | $69.16 | $76.75 | +$7.59 | 83% 81-17 (98) |
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR<$100 | Al Khaleej Saudi Clubavg 43¢ | $46.32 | $49.55 | +$3.23 | 75% 110-36 (146) |
CA canupdatelateronCTR<$100 | Al Khaleej Saudi Clubavg 29¢ | $29 | $46 | +$17 | 69% 476-209 (685) |
HI hithitfar<$100 | Al Kholood Saudi Clubavg 57.8¢ | $22.55 | $21.07 | -$1.48 | 58% 757-544 (1301) |
US User7429<$100 | Al Kholood Saudi Clubavg 84¢ | $8.6 | $5.53 | -$3.07 | 56% 8903-7117 (16020) |
Invested
$1,949.81
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$790.76
Record
49%
6190-6320 (12510)
Invested
$216.65
Value
$996.57
PnL
+$779.93
Record
63%
179-106 (285)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121CTR<$100Invested
$69.16
Value
$76.75
PnL
+$7.59
Record
83%
81-17 (98)
Invested
$46.32
Value
$49.55
PnL
+$3.23
Record
75%
110-36 (146)
Invested
$29
Value
$46
PnL
+$17
Record
69%
476-209 (685)
Invested
$22.55
Value
$21.07
PnL
-$1.48
Record
58%
757-544 (1301)
Invested
$8.6
Value
$5.53
PnL
-$3.07
Record
56%
8903-7117 (16020)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
purplegatto
Al Kholood Saudi Club — $1.2K
JabJabich
CTRAl Khaleej Saudi Club — $996.57
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121
CTRAl Khaleej Saudi Club — $76.75
0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70
CTRAl Khaleej Saudi Club — $49.55
canupdatelateron
CTRAl Khaleej Saudi Club — $46
hithitfar
Al Kholood Saudi Club — $21.07
User7429
Al Kholood Saudi Club — $5.53