Spread: Al Riyadh Saudi Club (-1.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Al Khaleej Saudi Club (40%) · Al Khaleej Saudi Club at 90¢ · $1K held · ended Sep 7
⚖️
Neutral
Al Khaleej Saudi Club
5
Al Khaleej Saudi Club 40%
$1.3K
$1.3K
91.6¢ → 89.5¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralAl Khaleej Saudi Club at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Al Khaleej Saudi Club. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Al Khaleej Saudi Clubavg 91.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$1.3K | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Al Khaleej Saudi Clubavg 89.2¢ | $84.54 | $84.8 | +$0.26 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100 | Al Riyadh Saudi Clubavg 6¢ | $20.38 | $35.67 | +$15.29 | 42% 8192-11384 (19576) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Al Riyadh Saudi Clubavg 5¢ | $3 | $6.31 | +$3.3 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Al Riyadh Saudi Clubavg 9¢ | $1.35 | $1.58 | +$0.22 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
Invested
$1,181.02
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$84.54
Value
$84.8
PnL
+$0.26
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
Invested
$20.38
Value
$35.67
PnL
+$15.29
Record
42%
8192-11384 (19576)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$3
Value
$6.31
PnL
+$3.3
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$1.35
Value
$1.58
PnL
+$0.22
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.