Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-11-06?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 6

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$11.2K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

76.4¢ → 99.3¢

+30% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$11.1K

Total Shares11,244

Combined PnL+$3.0K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$53.11

Total Shares7,056

Combined PnL$-1.7K

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

78h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
bot-rapin	Noavg 98.6¢	$4.5K	$3.7K	+$31.08	— 6-0 (6)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 12.8¢	$433.7	$2.5K	+$2.6K	35% 1152-2097 (3249)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 92.9¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$143.32	53% 23826-20970 (44796)
xxNyx	Noavg 98.2¢	$2.7K	$1.3K	+$29.25	82% 1817-404 (2221)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 93.9¢	$674.91	$710.04	+$37.65	61% 960-606 (1566)
RO roscoff	Noavg 80¢	$510.1	$629.98	+$122.11	50% 174-172 (346)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 29.4¢	$999.94	$25.48	-$972.74	50% 21367-21638 (43005)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 17.6¢	$449.12	$19.1	-$412.89	48% 61881-66739 (128620)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 30¢	$219.18	$5.49	-$212.96	58% 47061-33943 (81004)
BU Burkilota1CTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$98.74	$3.04	-$95.7	62% 780-471 (1251)

bot-rapin

Invested

$4,548.29

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$31.08

Record

—

6-0 (6)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$433.7

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

35%

1152-2097 (3249)

cigarettes

Invested

$2,107.35

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$143.32

Record

53%

23826-20970 (44796)

xxNyx

Invested

$2,746.79

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$29.25

Record

82%

1817-404 (2221)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$674.91

Value

$710.04

PnL

+$37.65

Record

61%

960-606 (1566)

roscoff

Invested

$510.1

Value

$629.98

PnL

+$122.11

Record

50%

174-172 (346)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$999.94

Value

$25.48

PnL

-$972.74

Record

50%

21367-21638 (43005)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$449.12

Value

$19.1

PnL

-$412.89

Record

48%

61881-66739 (128620)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$219.18

Value

$5.49

PnL

-$212.96

Record

58%

47061-33943 (81004)

Burkilota1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$98.74

Value

$3.04

PnL

-$95.7

Record

62%

780-471 (1251)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

78h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.