Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-11-06?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 99¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 6

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

$992.59

Smart Money Entry

74.6¢ → 99.2¢

+33% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$9.4K

Total Shares9,484

Combined PnL+$2.7K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$59.97

Total Shares7,056

Combined PnL$-1.7K

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

72h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
bot-rapin	Noavg 98.5¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$19.69	— 6-0 (6)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 13.2¢	$425.71	$2.4K	+$2.5K	35% 1149-2095 (3244)
xxNyx	Noavg 98.2¢	$2.7K	$2.3K	+$28.08	82% 1817-404 (2221)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 93.9¢	$674.91	$708.6	+$37.65	61% 960-606 (1566)
RO roscoff	Noavg 80¢	$510.1	$628.7	+$121.79	50% 174-172 (346)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 29.4¢	$999.94	$28.88	-$965.95	50% 21336-21619 (42955)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 17.6¢	$449.12	$21.65	-$412.89	48% 61747-66610 (128357)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 30¢	$219.18	$6.22	-$212.96	58% 47026-33907 (80933)
BU Burkilota1CTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$98.74	$3.23	-$95.51	62% 780-471 (1251)

bot-rapin

Invested

$3,237.78

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$19.69

Record

—

6-0 (6)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$425.71

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

35%

1149-2095 (3244)

xxNyx

Invested

$2,746.79

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$28.08

Record

82%

1817-404 (2221)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$674.91

Value

$708.6

PnL

+$37.65

Record

61%

960-606 (1566)

roscoff

Invested

$510.1

Value

$628.7

PnL

+$121.79

Record

50%

174-172 (346)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$999.94

Value

$28.88

PnL

-$965.95

Record

50%

21336-21619 (42955)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$449.12

Value

$21.65

PnL

-$412.89

Record

48%

61747-66610 (128357)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$219.18

Value

$6.22

PnL

-$212.96

Record

58%

47026-33907 (80933)

Burkilota1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$98.74

Value

$3.23

PnL

-$95.51

Record

62%

780-471 (1251)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

72h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.