Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (90%). 8 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Exact Score: Al Ittihad Saudi Club 0 - 0 NEOM SC?
8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 11¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
No
13
No 62%
$13.1K
$214.57
73¢ → 10.5¢
-86% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 11%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 90%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 morito181 | Yesavg 23.4¢ | $1.6K | $6.0K | +$4.4K | 61% 847-548 (1395) |
RO roscoff | Yesavg 31.8¢ | $1.0K | $2.9K | +$1.8K | 53% 172-152 (324) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 75.3¢ | $7.6K | $1.5K | $-6.1K | 51% 23399-22168 (45567) |
 shineforever | Yesavg 46.3¢ | $615.07 | $1.2K | +$294.38 | 58% 82-60 (142) |
DI dips. | Yesavg 83.3¢ | $810.6 | $870.42 | +$20.93 | 47% 10131-11459 (21590) |
RO roundtripped | Yesavg 34¢ | $232.43 | $611.83 | +$235.84 | 66% 160-83 (243) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Noavg 13.9¢ | $68.4 | $51.8 | -$16.6 | 18% 4199-19790 (23989) |
 HRTradingCTR | Noavg 71.6¢ | $270.25 | $39.63 | -$230.62 | 51% 7341-7085 (14426) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 87¢ | $261 | $31.5 | -$229.5 | 58% 44610-32488 (77098) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 12¢ | $3.6 | $3.15 | -$0.45 | 60% 11480-7596 (19076) |
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100 | Noavg 9.4¢ | $2.59 | $2.9 | +$0.31 | 43% 3085-4124 (7209) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 13¢ | $2.6 | $2.1 | -$0.5 | 54% 22035-19135 (41170) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Noavg 37.4¢ | $5.86 | $1.65 | -$4.21 | 50% 20187-20523 (40710) |
morito181Invested
$1,566.07
Value
$6.0K
PnL
+$4.4K
Record
61%
847-548 (1395)
Invested
$1,018.47
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$1.8K
Record
53%
172-152 (324)
Invested
$7,584.92
Value
$1.5K
PnL
$-6.1K
Record
51%
23399-22168 (45567)
shineforeverInvested
$615.07
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$294.38
Record
58%
82-60 (142)
Invested
$810.6
Value
$870.42
PnL
+$20.93
Record
47%
10131-11459 (21590)
Invested
$232.43
Value
$611.83
PnL
+$235.84
Record
66%
160-83 (243)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$68.4
Value
$51.8
PnL
-$16.6
Record
18%
4199-19790 (23989)
HRTradingCTRInvested
$270.25
Value
$39.63
PnL
-$230.62
Record
51%
7341-7085 (14426)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$261
Value
$31.5
PnL
-$229.5
Record
58%
44610-32488 (77098)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$3.15
PnL
-$0.45
Record
60%
11480-7596 (19076)
Invested
$2.59
Value
$2.9
PnL
+$0.31
Record
43%
3085-4124 (7209)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$2.1
PnL
-$0.5
Record
54%
22035-19135 (41170)
Invested
$5.86
Value
$1.65
PnL
-$4.21
Record
50%
20187-20523 (40710)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
10.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.