Al Ittihad Saudi Club vs. Al Fayha Saudi Club: O/U 1.5
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 84¢ · $1K held · ended Sep 8
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 25%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
-$12.95
Research grade
NeutralOver at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FE ferrariChampions2026 | Overavg 81.7¢ | $544.12 | $555.85 | +$11.74 | 42% 8192-11384 (19576) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Overavg 64.8¢ | $229.51 | $229.42 | -$0.09 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 64.8¢ | $115.96 | $149.47 | +$33.5 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 23.4¢ | $113.55 | $79.96 | -$33.6 | |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 16¢ | $185.22 | $191.6 | -$177.8 | 50% 29172-29037 (58209) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 29.8¢ | $403.91 | $81.04 | +$32.12 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 27¢ | $693.92 | $1.58 | +$120.99 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
Invested
$544.12
Value
$555.85
PnL
+$11.74
Record
42%
8192-11384 (19576)
Invested
$229.51
Value
$229.42
PnL
-$0.09
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
Both legs:
Invested
$185.22
Value
$191.6
PnL
-$177.8
Record
50%
29172-29037 (58209)
Invested
$403.91
Value
$81.04
PnL
+$32.12
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
RN1CTRInvested
$693.92
Value
$1.58
PnL
+$120.99
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.