Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-11-06?

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 99¢ · $38K held · ends Nov 6

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$38.4K

Combined PnL

$4.9K

Smart Money Entry

85.4¢ → 99.3¢

+16% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$38.1K

Total Shares38,630

Combined PnL+$10.4K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$294.3

Total Shares24,525

Combined PnL$-5.5K

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO roscoff	Noavg 80¢	$11.3K	$13.9K	+$2.7K	50% 174-171 (345)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 95.1¢	$13.6K	$9.6K	+$523.42	61% 960-605 (1565)
bot-rapin	Noavg 98.5¢	$11.8K	$8.7K	+$100.37	— 6-0 (6)
xxNyx	Noavg 97¢	$3.8K	$2.4K	+$68.47	82% 1815-404 (2219)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 5.8¢	$502.04	$2.0K	+$5.7K	38% 1188-1960 (3148)
DI dips.	Noavg 87.7¢	$643.37	$720.83	+$76.37	47% 10622-12133 (22755)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 84¢	$390.78	$396.82	+$6.03	53% 23476-20702 (44178)
morito181	Noavg 96.2¢	$352.99	$348.93	+$9.35	61% 875-556 (1431)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 21.6¢	$4.7K	$263.62	$-4.5K	50% 21147-21407 (42554)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 89.5¢	$65.75	$50.58	-$15.17	31% 3237-7104 (10341)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 76¢	$1.0K	$16.2	$-1.0K	58% 46658-33622 (80280)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$24.38	$14.39	-$9.99	19% 2852-12168 (15020)
E4 e46m3	Noavg 29¢	$1.7K	$7.89	+$1.3K	67% 27455-13809 (41264)
BU Burkilota1CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$1.75	$0.09	-$1.66	63% 777-466 (1243)

roscoff

Invested

$11,291.43

Value

$13.9K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

50%

174-171 (345)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$13,579

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$523.42

Record

61%

960-605 (1565)

bot-rapin

Invested

$11,780.92

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$100.37

Record

—

6-0 (6)

xxNyx

Invested

$3,764.92

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$68.47

Record

82%

1815-404 (2219)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$502.04

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$5.7K

Record

38%

1188-1960 (3148)

dips.

Invested

$643.37

Value

$720.83

PnL

+$76.37

Record

47%

10622-12133 (22755)

cigarettes

Invested

$390.78

Value

$396.82

PnL

+$6.03

Record

53%

23476-20702 (44178)

morito181

Invested

$352.99

Value

$348.93

PnL

+$9.35

Record

61%

875-556 (1431)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,742.26

Value

$263.62

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

50%

21147-21407 (42554)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$65.75

Value

$50.58

PnL

-$15.17

Record

31%

3237-7104 (10341)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,025.98

Value

$16.2

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

58%

46658-33622 (80280)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.38

Value

$14.39

PnL

-$9.99

Record

19%

2852-12168 (15020)

e46m3

Invested

$1,707.54

Value

$7.89

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

67%

27455-13809 (41264)

Burkilota1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.75

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$1.66

Record

63%

777-466 (1243)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.