Will Al Hazem SC win on 2026-11-06?

1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (14%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 6

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 14%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,624

Combined PnL+$14.14

Yes6 traders

Total Value$68.52

Total Shares12,458

Combined PnL$-1.1K

No — 14%Yes — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

95h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
bot-rapin	Noavg 98.6¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$14.14	— 6-0 (6)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.1	$31.75	$-1.9K	38% 1271-2046 (3317)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$2.86	$22.99	+$457.15	53% 24313-21381 (45694)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yes	$9.7	$9.7	-$578.29	66% 27652-13964 (41616)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$1.35	$2.73	+$960.73	35% 19615-37161 (56776)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$4.76	$0.96	-$3.79	48% 62365-67229 (129594)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$1.35	$0.39	-$1.31	50% 21530-21816 (43346)

bot-rapin

Invested

$1,600.81

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$14.14

Record

—

6-0 (6)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$31.75

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

38%

1271-2046 (3317)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.86

Value

$22.99

PnL

+$457.15

Record

53%

24313-21381 (45694)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.7

Value

$9.7

PnL

-$578.29

Record

66%

27652-13964 (41616)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.35

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$960.73

Record

35%

19615-37161 (56776)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.76

Value

$0.96

PnL

-$3.79

Record

48%

62365-67229 (129594)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.35

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$1.31

Record

50%

21530-21816 (43346)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

95h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.