Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (88%). 4 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: Al Hazem SC 0 - 0 Al Nassr Saudi Club?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (36%) · No at 12¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 6

Yes88¢No12¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 36%

Total Value

$24.8K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Entry

73.5¢ → 11.9¢

-84% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 88%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes88%

No12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$21.9K

Total Shares24,831

Combined PnL+$15.0K

No4 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares24,307

Combined PnL$-12.9K

Yes — 64%No — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HR HRAImail-.-	Yesavg 22.6¢	$3.8K	$14.8K	+$11.0K	— 13-3 (16)
morito181	Yesavg 37¢	$1.7K	$4.0K	+$2.3K	61% 849-552 (1401)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 73.5¢	$15.8K	$2.9K	$-12.9K	50% 35855-35309 (71164)
shineforever	Yesavg 33.2¢	$481.05	$1.3K	+$800.03	58% 83-61 (144)
DI dips.	Yesavg 92.4¢	$611.88	$582.24	-$26.03	47% 10232-11605 (21837)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70	Yesavg 5.4¢	$33.25	$540.89	+$510.1	75% 109-36 (145)
RO roscoff	Yesavg 39.2¢	$173.46	$389.18	+$199.57	53% 172-153 (325)
JohnLKellyJr	Yesavg 20¢	$85.45	$375.78	+$173.26	53% 1307-1176 (2483)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 94.2¢	$78.9	$36.15	-$42.75	58% 44906-32675 (77581)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Noavg 8.3¢	$7.47	$10.84	+$3.37	43% 3100-4146 (7246)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$5.96	$1.44	-$4.52	35% 17800-33165 (50965)

HRAImail-.-

Yes

Invested

$3,777.63

Value

$14.8K

PnL

+$11.0K

Record

—

13-3 (16)

morito181

Yes

Invested

$1,680.51

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

61%

849-552 (1401)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$15,777.88

Value

$2.9K

PnL

$-12.9K

Record

50%

35855-35309 (71164)

shineforever

Yes

Invested

$481.05

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$800.03

Record

58%

83-61 (144)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$611.88

Value

$582.24

PnL

-$26.03

Record

47%

10232-11605 (21837)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70

Yes

Invested

$33.25

Value

$540.89

PnL

+$510.1

Record

75%

109-36 (145)

roscoff

Yes

Invested

$173.46

Value

$389.18

PnL

+$199.57

Record

53%

172-153 (325)

JohnLKellyJr

Yes

Invested

$85.45

Value

$375.78

PnL

+$173.26

Record

53%

1307-1176 (2483)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$78.9

Value

$36.15

PnL

-$42.75

Record

58%

44906-32675 (77581)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Invested

$7.47

Value

$10.84

PnL

+$3.37

Record

43%

3100-4146 (7246)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$5.96

Value

$1.44

PnL

-$4.52

Record

35%

17800-33165 (50965)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 88%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.5%

11.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$639.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

740.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.