Will Al Riyadh Saudi Club win on 2026-11-06?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 6

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$385.96

Smart Money Entry

91.2¢ → 98.7¢

+8% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,235

Combined PnL-$4.39

Yes6 traders

Total Value$34.08

Total Shares2,817

Combined PnL-$381.57

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 94.9¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$24.54	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 86¢	$1.1K	$838.06	-$40.8	42% 3180-4317 (7497)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 94.3¢	$119.43	$95.7	+$1.15	40% 1050-1578 (2628)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658	Noavg 84.9¢	$182.07	$53.17	+$6.36	39% 1087-1679 (2766)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493	Noavg 86.8¢	$429.6	$34.31	+$4.37	55% 4411-3608 (8019)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225	Noavg 95.7¢	$253.63	$31.14	-$0.01	40% 2177-3221 (5398)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 19¢	$256.5	$18.23	-$238.28	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
BU Burkilota1CTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$98.73	$4.94	-$93.8	63% 712-413 (1125)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$12.06	$4.27	-$7.8	20% 2590-10277 (12867)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.5¢	$32.1	$3.76	-$28.39	50% 20743-20989 (41732)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yes	$2.28	$2.28	+$0	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yes	$0.61	$0.61	-$13.31	27% 324-895 (1219)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$1,133.88

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$24.54

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$1,122.78

Value

$838.06

PnL

-$40.8

Record

42%

3180-4317 (7497)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$119.43

Value

$95.7

PnL

+$1.15

Record

40%

1050-1578 (2628)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658

Invested

$182.07

Value

$53.17

PnL

+$6.36

Record

39%

1087-1679 (2766)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

Invested

$429.6

Value

$34.31

PnL

+$4.37

Record

55%

4411-3608 (8019)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

Invested

$253.63

Value

$31.14

PnL

-$0.01

Record

40%

2177-3221 (5398)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$256.5

Value

$18.23

PnL

-$238.28

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

Burkilota1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$98.73

Value

$4.94

PnL

-$93.8

Record

63%

712-413 (1125)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.06

Value

$4.27

PnL

-$7.8

Record

20%

2590-10277 (12867)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.1

Value

$3.76

PnL

-$28.39

Record

50%

20743-20989 (41732)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.28

Value

$2.28

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.61

Value

$0.61

PnL

-$13.31

Record

27%

324-895 (1219)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.