Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (90%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Exact Score: Al Fateh Saudi Club 0 - 0 Al Riyadh Saudi Club?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 11¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 63%
$9.0K
$-4.5K
73.6¢ → 10.5¢
-86% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 11%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 90%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO roscoff | Yesavg 34.4¢ | $2.2K | $5.7K | +$3.5K | 53% 172-152 (324) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 74.2¢ | $9.9K | $2.1K | $-7.8K | 51% 23399-22168 (45567) |
DI dips. | Yesavg 90.1¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$71.4 | 47% 10131-11459 (21590) |
 morito181<$100 | Yesavg 34.7¢ | $37.19 | $95.97 | +$58.24 | 61% 847-548 (1395) |
 HRTradingCTR | Noavg 64.5¢ | $162.28 | $26.41 | -$135.86 | 51% 7341-7085 (14426) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 29¢ | $30.45 | $11.03 | -$19.42 | 20% 2469-9863 (12332) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 9¢ | $6.3 | $7.35 | +$1.05 | 60% 11480-7596 (19076) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 9¢ | $1.8 | $2.1 | +$0.3 | 54% 22035-19135 (41170) |
Invested
$2,182.86
Value
$5.7K
PnL
+$3.5K
Record
53%
172-152 (324)
Invested
$9,894.68
Value
$2.1K
PnL
$-7.8K
Record
51%
23399-22168 (45567)
Invested
$1,054.58
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$71.4
Record
47%
10131-11459 (21590)
morito181<$100Invested
$37.19
Value
$95.97
PnL
+$58.24
Record
61%
847-548 (1395)
HRTradingCTRInvested
$162.28
Value
$26.41
PnL
-$135.86
Record
51%
7341-7085 (14426)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$30.45
Value
$11.03
PnL
-$19.42
Record
20%
2469-9863 (12332)
Invested
$6.3
Value
$7.35
PnL
+$1.05
Record
60%
11480-7596 (19076)
Invested
$1.8
Value
$2.1
PnL
+$0.3
Record
54%
22035-19135 (41170)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
10.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.