Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (61%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Al Faisaly Saudi Club win on 2026-09-05?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 40¢ · $771 held · ended Sep 5
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$770.58
-$19.23
Research grade
NeutralYes at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x709179E7392e59922Ab2D73cb1141698b30096f8-1773173619816CTR | Yesavg 41¢ | $327.99 | $315.99 | -$12 | 50% 5870-5897 (11767) |
 VeryLucky888ARB<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $273.98 | $279.1 | +$5.12 | 58% 46107-33290 (79397) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 59¢ | $143.94 | $147.6 | +$3.66 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 39.1¢ | $130.04 | $131.5 | +$1.46 | |
 RN1 | Noavg 63¢ | $182.71 | $175.48 | -$7.23 | 53% 60814-53199 (114013) |
Invested
$327.99
Value
$315.99
PnL
-$12
Record
50%
5870-5897 (11767)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100Invested
$273.98
Value
$279.1
PnL
+$5.12
Record
58%
46107-33290 (79397)
Both legs:
RN1Invested
$182.71
Value
$175.48
PnL
-$7.23
Record
53%
60814-53199 (114013)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.