Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2026-11-07?

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 100¢ · $293 held · ends Nov 7

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 20%

Total Value

$293.06

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Entry

96¢ → 99.6¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$263.79

Total Shares264

Combined PnL+$58.09

Yes8 traders

Total Value$29.27

Total Shares7,318

Combined PnL$-1.6K

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

93h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 95.2¢	$142.39	$134.45	-$7.94	51% 26884-25495 (52379)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 96.8¢	$222.78	$129.34	+$66.03	53% 24137-21182 (45319)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yes	$17.99	$17.99	$-1.5K	66% 27649-13951 (41600)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$37.56	$4.06	-$33.72	48% 62085-66960 (129045)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$8.36	$3.77	-$4.59	58% 47334-34134 (81468)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$2.76	$0.9	+$26.33	32% 3311-7182 (10493)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$8.06	$0.85	-$7.21	50% 21502-21770 (43272)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$26.2	$0.73	-$60	34% 3352-6381 (9733)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yes	$0.72	$0.72	-$59	45% 1854-2248 (4102)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.43	$0.25	-$20.89	38% 7201-11841 (19042)

Flaznorp

Invested

$142.39

Value

$134.45

PnL

-$7.94

Record

51%

26884-25495 (52379)

cigarettes

Invested

$222.78

Value

$129.34

PnL

+$66.03

Record

53%

24137-21182 (45319)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.99

Value

$17.99

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

66%

27649-13951 (41600)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.56

Value

$4.06

PnL

-$33.72

Record

48%

62085-66960 (129045)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.36

Value

$3.77

PnL

-$4.59

Record

58%

47334-34134 (81468)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.76

Value

$0.9

PnL

+$26.33

Record

32%

3311-7182 (10493)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.06

Value

$0.85

PnL

-$7.21

Record

50%

21502-21770 (43272)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.2

Value

$0.73

PnL

-$60

Record

34%

3352-6381 (9733)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.72

Value

$0.72

PnL

-$59

Record

45%

1854-2248 (4102)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$20.89

Record

38%

7201-11841 (19042)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

93h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.