Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-11-07?

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (79%) · No at 99¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 7

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 79%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$2.3K

Smart Money Entry

54.6¢ → 99¢

+81% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares5,415

Combined PnL+$2.3K

Yes3 traders

Total Value$5.44

Total Shares2,718

Combined PnL-$24.89

No — 79%Yes — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

77% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 77% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 3.5¢	$87.7	$2.5K	+$2.3K	41% 1183-1676 (2859)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 97.7¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$49.22	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 97.3¢	$647.38	$226.16	+$5.58	47% 2137-2439 (4576)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 92.8¢	$128.89	$138.61	+$9.31	60% 911-595 (1506)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658	Noavg 97.4¢	$223.77	$60.46	+$1.46	39% 1084-1679 (2763)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 88.4¢	$38.98	$38.31	+$4.36	72% 13948-5333 (19281)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493	Noavg 98.1¢	$390.21	$37.57	+$0.63	55% 4408-3603 (8011)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$58.58	$20.27	+$0.34	40% 2175-3220 (5395)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$9.78	$10.08	+$0.3	47% 1688-1871 (3559)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 98¢	$8.37	$8.52	+$0.15	77% 12289-3775 (16064)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$43.97	$7.1	+$0.08	40% 1048-1577 (2625)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$16.27	$2.93	-$13.33	48% 59237-63255 (122492)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$13.25	$1.69	-$11.56	20% 2587-10256 (12843)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yes	$0.81	$0.81	+$0	35% 18146-33983 (52129)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$87.7

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

41%

1183-1676 (2859)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$2,342.61

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$49.22

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$647.38

Value

$226.16

PnL

+$5.58

Record

47%

2137-2439 (4576)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$128.89

Value

$138.61

PnL

+$9.31

Record

60%

911-595 (1506)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658

Invested

$223.77

Value

$60.46

PnL

+$1.46

Record

39%

1084-1679 (2763)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$38.98

Value

$38.31

PnL

+$4.36

Record

72%

13948-5333 (19281)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

Invested

$390.21

Value

$37.57

PnL

+$0.63

Record

55%

4408-3603 (8011)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$58.58

Value

$20.27

PnL

+$0.34

Record

40%

2175-3220 (5395)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$9.78

Value

$10.08

PnL

+$0.3

Record

47%

1688-1871 (3559)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$8.37

Value

$8.52

PnL

+$0.15

Record

77%

12289-3775 (16064)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$43.97

Value

$7.1

PnL

+$0.08

Record

40%

1048-1577 (2625)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.27

Value

$2.93

PnL

-$13.33

Record

48%

59237-63255 (122492)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.25

Value

$1.69

PnL

-$11.56

Record

20%

2587-10256 (12843)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.81

Value

$0.81

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

77% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 77% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.