Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-11-07?

15 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (79%) · No at 96¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 7

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 79%

Total Value

$20.3K

Combined PnL

$59.6

Smart Money Entry

70.7¢ → 96.3¢

+36% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 19 top traders (79%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$19.5K

Total Shares20,205

Combined PnL+$5.4K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$804.56

Total Shares22,664

Combined PnL$-5.4K

No — 79%Yes — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 77% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO roscoff	Noavg 80¢	$6.9K	$8.3K	+$1.5K	52% 173-158 (331)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 66.6¢	$2.1K	$3.1K	+$951.33	60% 11747-7966 (19713)
DI dips.	Noavg 84.9¢	$2.3K	$2.6K	+$293.5	47% 10345-11766 (22111)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 2.2¢	$61.47	$2.4K	+$2.5K	41% 1177-1666 (2843)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 92.9¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	+$84.88	60% 911-595 (1506)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 25.7¢	$5.0K	$690.96	$-4.4K	50% 20688-20949 (41637)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 94.5¢	$572.73	$583.38	+$10.65	53% 22473-19696 (42169)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 45.8¢	$42.54	$86.63	+$30.89	51% 24195-22931 (47126)
ME merod	Noavg 87.3¢	$159.69	$72.7	+$4.63	43% 3064-4124 (7188)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 71.1¢	$258.9	$64.78	+$17.42	47% 1665-1849 (3514)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225	Noavg 68.5¢	$346.71	$54.03	+$16.15	40% 2149-3186 (5335)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658	Noavg 77.3¢	$163.46	$53.51	+$10.53	39% 1052-1657 (2709)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 70.7¢	$206.05	$51.92	+$14.17	39% 1035-1630 (2665)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 45.9¢	$670.29	$51.82	-$618.46	58% 45399-32894 (78293)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 23.8¢	$343.33	$51.26	-$280.93	48% 59185-63178 (122363)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 72.1¢	$189.61	$44.22	+$11.46	47% 2122-2412 (4534)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493	Noavg 71.4¢	$147.8	$27.39	+$4.35	55% 4387-3591 (7978)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 67.4¢	$220.84	$17.52	+$5.25	40% 1023-1558 (2581)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.2¢	$39.25	$10.52	-$28.73	20% 2564-10155 (12719)

roscoff

Invested

$6,871.46

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

52%

173-158 (331)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$2,138.75

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$951.33

Record

60%

11747-7966 (19713)

dips.

Invested

$2,330.72

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$293.5

Record

47%

10345-11766 (22111)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$61.47

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

41%

1177-1666 (2843)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$2,054.06

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$84.88

Record

60%

911-595 (1506)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,007.01

Value

$690.96

PnL

$-4.4K

Record

50%

20688-20949 (41637)

cigarettes

Invested

$572.73

Value

$583.38

PnL

+$10.65

Record

53%

22473-19696 (42169)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$42.54

Value

$86.63

PnL

+$30.89

Record

51%

24195-22931 (47126)

merod

Invested

$159.69

Value

$72.7

PnL

+$4.63

Record

43%

3064-4124 (7188)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$258.9

Value

$64.78

PnL

+$17.42

Record

47%

1665-1849 (3514)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

Invested

$346.71

Value

$54.03

PnL

+$16.15

Record

40%

2149-3186 (5335)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658

Invested

$163.46

Value

$53.51

PnL

+$10.53

Record

39%

1052-1657 (2709)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$206.05

Value

$51.92

PnL

+$14.17

Record

39%

1035-1630 (2665)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$670.29

Value

$51.82

PnL

-$618.46

Record

58%

45399-32894 (78293)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$343.33

Value

$51.26

PnL

-$280.93

Record

48%

59185-63178 (122363)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$189.61

Value

$44.22

PnL

+$11.46

Record

47%

2122-2412 (4534)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

Invested

$147.8

Value

$27.39

PnL

+$4.35

Record

55%

4387-3591 (7978)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$220.84

Value

$17.52

PnL

+$5.25

Record

40%

1023-1558 (2581)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.25

Value

$10.52

PnL

-$28.73

Record

20%

2564-10155 (12719)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 19 top traders (79%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 77% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.4%

96.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.