Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-10-15?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 63¢ · $160 held · ends Mar 6, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$160.28
-$0.38
Research grade
NeutralNo at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 53¢ | $92.37 | $105 | +$12.63 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Yesavg 48.2¢ | $55.79 | $38.43 | -$17.36 | 46% 8770-10464 (19234) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 56.2¢ | $5.62 | $7.9 | +$2.28 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 63.5¢ | $6.35 | $7.9 | +$1.55 | 52% 9022-8174 (17196) |
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $0.53 | $1.05 | +$0.53 | 49% 103-107 (210) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$92.37
Value
$105
PnL
+$12.63
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$55.79
Value
$38.43
PnL
-$17.36
Record
46%
8770-10464 (19234)
Invested
$5.62
Value
$7.9
PnL
+$2.28
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$6.35
Value
$7.9
PnL
+$1.55
Record
52%
9022-8174 (17196)
Invested
$0.53
Value
$1.05
PnL
+$0.53
Record
49%
103-107 (210)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.