Spread: Abha Saudi Club (-2.5)
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Al Shabab Saudi Club (50%) · Al Shabab Saudi Club at 51¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Al Shabab Saudi Club
8
Al Shabab Saudi Club 50%
$9.3K
-$502.27
82.9¢ → 50.5¢
-39% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralAl Shabab Saudi Club at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
58h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Al Shabab Saudi Club. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PU purplegatto | Al Shabab Saudi Clubavg 91.2¢ | $7.0K | $3.9K | $-3.1K | 49% 6331-6485 (12816) |
JA JabJabichCTR | Abha Saudi Clubavg 8.7¢ | $586.11 | $3.3K | +$2.7K | 61% 198-128 (326) |
E4 e46m3 | Al Shabab Saudi Clubavg 57¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$82.14 | 67% 27557-13860 (41417) |
 0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121CTR | Abha Saudi Clubavg 46.5¢ | $500.34 | $532.88 | +$32.53 | 83% 89-18 (107) |
FO forecastication4 | Al Shabab Saudi Clubavg 61.8¢ | $257.66 | $210.59 | -$47.07 | 50% 1393-1397 (2790) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR | Abha Saudi Clubavg 51.2¢ | $213.2 | $205.92 | -$2.08 | 51% 1964-1900 (3864) |
US User7429 | Al Shabab Saudi Clubavg 74.9¢ | $112.98 | $76.17 | -$36.81 | 56% 9146-7299 (16445) |
DI dips.CTR<$100 | Abha Saudi Clubavg 49.2¢ | $20.19 | $20.29 | +$0.62 | 47% 10752-12293 (23045) |
Invested
$6,961.85
Value
$3.9K
PnL
$-3.1K
Record
49%
6331-6485 (12816)
Invested
$586.11
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$2.7K
Record
61%
198-128 (326)
Invested
$1,126.34
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$82.14
Record
67%
27557-13860 (41417)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121CTRInvested
$500.34
Value
$532.88
PnL
+$32.53
Record
83%
89-18 (107)
Invested
$257.66
Value
$210.59
PnL
-$47.07
Record
50%
1393-1397 (2790)
Invested
$213.2
Value
$205.92
PnL
-$2.08
Record
51%
1964-1900 (3864)
Invested
$112.98
Value
$76.17
PnL
-$36.81
Record
56%
9146-7299 (16445)
Invested
$20.19
Value
$20.29
PnL
+$0.62
Record
47%
10752-12293 (23045)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
purplegatto
Al Shabab Saudi Club — $3.9K
JabJabich
CTRAbha Saudi Club — $3.3K
e46m3
Al Shabab Saudi Club — $1.0K
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121
CTRAbha Saudi Club — $532.88
forecastication4
Al Shabab Saudi Club — $210.59
0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080
CTRAbha Saudi Club — $205.92
User7429
Al Shabab Saudi Club — $76.17
dips.
CTRAbha Saudi Club — $20.29