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6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 95¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 5

Yes95¢No5¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 95.1¢

+73% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes95%

No5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares4,513

Combined PnL+$1.7K

No4 traders

Total Value$35.31

Total Shares1,075

Combined PnL-$639.61

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DI dips.	Yesavg 96.9¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$2.28	47% 10355-11792 (22147)
WH whosay	Yesavg 15.1¢	$140.31	$901.74	+$737.57	56% 1135-882 (2017)
shineforever	Yesavg 17.3¢	$146.72	$824.02	+$654.65	58% 83-61 (144)
morito181	Yesavg 37¢	$128.76	$337.44	+$181.83	61% 860-552 (1412)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121	Yesavg 18.7¢	$40.69	$205.69	+$165	83% 81-17 (98)
E4 e46m3	Yes	$174.13	$174.13	+$1.67	72% 13948-5333 (19281)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 82.2¢	$634.69	$24.7	-$609.99	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 3.2¢	$7.52	$7.52	+$0	20% 2587-10256 (12843)
BU Burkilota1CTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$11.25	$2.25	-$9	63% 712-413 (1125)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 82.5¢	$21.45	$0.83	-$20.62	51% 7648-7364 (15012)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$1,925.92

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$2.28

Record

47%

10355-11792 (22147)

whosay

Yes

Invested

$140.31

Value

$901.74

PnL

+$737.57

Record

56%

1135-882 (2017)

shineforever

Yes

Invested

$146.72

Value

$824.02

PnL

+$654.65

Record

58%

83-61 (144)

morito181

Yes

Invested

$128.76

Value

$337.44

PnL

+$181.83

Record

61%

860-552 (1412)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121

Yes

Invested

$40.69

Value

$205.69

PnL

+$165

Record

83%

81-17 (98)

e46m3

Yes

Invested

$174.13

Value

$174.13

PnL

+$1.67

Record

72%

13948-5333 (19281)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$634.69

Value

$24.7

PnL

-$609.99

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$7.52

Value

$7.52

PnL

+$0

Record

20%

2587-10256 (12843)

Burkilota1CTR<$100

Invested

$11.25

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$9

Record

63%

712-413 (1125)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$21.45

Value

$0.83

PnL

-$20.62

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.3%

95.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.