Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spain General Election: PP + Vox get 50%+ of Vote?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 47¢ · $239 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
2 arb excluded
$239.34
$3.85
Research grade
NeutralYes at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-30 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HaradwaithARB<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $165.13 | $107.91 | +$9.39 | — 3-6 (9) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 52¢ | $76.91 | $80.61 | +$9.69 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 46¢ | $27.6 | $27.3 | -$0.3 | |
WA WarriorHARB<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $129.39 | $72 | -$7.4 | — 0-10 (10) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 52¢ | $37.44 | $39.24 | +$1.8 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 48.4¢ | $34.83 | $32.76 | -$9.2 | |
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $23.13 | $25.05 | +$1.93 | 4% 5-124 (129) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $17.2 | $18.2 | +$1 | 39% 1005-1573 (2578) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 51.7¢ | $8.85 | $9.34 | +$0.49 | 41% 2924-4137 (7061) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $6.41 | $6.85 | +$0.44 | — 9-2 (11) |
HaradwaithARB<$100Invested
$165.13
Value
$107.91
PnL
+$9.39
Record
—
3-6 (9)
Both legs:
Invested
$129.39
Value
$72
PnL
-$7.4
Record
—
0-10 (10)
Both legs:
Invested
$23.13
Value
$25.05
PnL
+$1.93
Record
4%
5-124 (129)
Invested
$17.2
Value
$18.2
PnL
+$1
Record
39%
1005-1573 (2578)
Invested
$8.85
Value
$9.34
PnL
+$0.49
Record
41%
2924-4137 (7061)
Invested
$6.41
Value
$6.85
PnL
+$0.44
Record
—
9-2 (11)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.