Will the price of Solana be above $85 on November 8?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$2.6K
$396.21
78.3¢ → 98.6¢
+26% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
15h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO Tokor | Yesavg 78.1¢ | $2.0K | $2.6K | +$549.8 | 62% 880-543 (1423) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Yesavg 96.8¢ | $24.2 | $24.59 | +$0.4 | 49% 10705-11356 (22061) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Noavg 21.8¢ | $148.1 | $3.74 | -$144.36 | 65% 3106-1654 (4760) |
19 196874353278CTR<$100 | Noavg 7.8¢ | $10.14 | $0.72 | -$9.3 | 41% 371-536 (907) |
KI kingofcoinflipsCTR<$100 | Noavg 19¢ | $0.35 | $0.01 | -$0.33 | 55% 490-407 (897) |
Invested
$2,017.26
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$549.8
Record
62%
880-543 (1423)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$24.2
Value
$24.59
PnL
+$0.4
Record
49%
10705-11356 (22061)
Invested
$148.1
Value
$3.74
PnL
-$144.36
Record
65%
3106-1654 (4760)
Invested
$10.14
Value
$0.72
PnL
-$9.3
Record
41%
371-536 (907)
Invested
$0.35
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.33
Record
55%
490-407 (897)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.