Will the price of Solana be above $85 on November 7?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 25%
$2.6K
$368.7
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO Tokor | Yesavg 81.4¢ | $2.1K | $2.6K | +$471.75 | 62% 880-543 (1423) |
19 196874353278CTR<$100 | Noavg 5.1¢ | $37.76 | $10.09 | -$35.08 | 41% 371-536 (907) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR<$100 | Noavg 18.6¢ | $72.54 | $5 | -$67.54 | 65% 3106-1654 (4760) |
KI kingofcoinflipsCTR<$100 | Noavg 1.2¢ | $0.6 | $0.68 | -$0.43 | 55% 490-407 (897) |
Invested
$2,099.67
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$471.75
Record
62%
880-543 (1423)
Invested
$37.76
Value
$10.09
PnL
-$35.08
Record
41%
371-536 (907)
Invested
$72.54
Value
$5
PnL
-$67.54
Record
65%
3106-1654 (4760)
Invested
$0.6
Value
$0.68
PnL
-$0.43
Record
55%
490-407 (897)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.