Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET
Resolved Up. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
11
Down 64%
1 arb excluded
$266.53
-$179.28
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 pspspsps5ARB<$100 | Downavg 55.7¢ | $158.42 | $64.43 | -$93.99 | 46% 40118-48047 (88165) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.7¢ | $134.07 | — | -$134.07 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37.8¢ | $24.35 | $64.43 | +$40.08 | |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 54.7¢ | $115.64 | $110.82 | -$4.82 | 47% 6557-7261 (13818) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 44.2¢ | $61.9 | — | -$61.9 | 51% 12098-11574 (23672) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 62.1¢ | $44.04 | $45.28 | +$1.24 | 56% 8800-6875 (15675) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 31.1¢ | $51.19 | — | -$51.19 | 51% 10526-9985 (20511) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $38.38 | — | -$38.38 | 65% 114590-61630 (176220) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 74.6¢ | $29.95 | $25 | -$4.95 | 55% 51661-42834 (94495) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Upavg 33.7¢ | $7.07 | $21 | +$13.93 | 48% 10610-11273 (21883) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 64.2¢ | $13.94 | — | -$12.07 | 65% 130293-70158 (200451) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 26.7¢ | $14.53 | — | -$14.53 | 49% 80989-84429 (165418) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 17.7¢ | $3.54 | — | -$3.54 | 56% 60559-47106 (107665) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 28¢ | $3.08 | — | -$3.08 | 66% 130591-67529 (198120) |
pspspsps5ARB<$100Invested
$158.42
Value
$64.43
PnL
-$93.99
Record
46%
40118-48047 (88165)
Both legs:
Invested
$115.64
Value
$110.82
PnL
-$4.82
Record
47%
6557-7261 (13818)
Invested
$61.9
Value
—
PnL
-$61.9
Record
51%
12098-11574 (23672)
Invested
$44.04
Value
$45.28
PnL
+$1.24
Record
56%
8800-6875 (15675)
Invested
$51.19
Value
—
PnL
-$51.19
Record
51%
10526-9985 (20511)
Invested
$38.38
Value
—
PnL
-$38.38
Record
65%
114590-61630 (176220)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$29.95
Value
$25
PnL
-$4.95
Record
55%
51661-42834 (94495)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$7.07
Value
$21
PnL
+$13.93
Record
48%
10610-11273 (21883)
Invested
$13.94
Value
—
PnL
-$12.07
Record
65%
130293-70158 (200451)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$14.53
Value
—
PnL
-$14.53
Record
49%
80989-84429 (165418)
Invested
$3.54
Value
—
PnL
-$3.54
Record
56%
60559-47106 (107665)
Invested
$3.08
Value
—
PnL
-$3.08
Record
66%
130591-67529 (198120)