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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET

Resolved Down. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Up 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$308.22

Combined PnL

-$85.13

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$127.78

Total Shares128

Combined PnL+$24.17

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares152

Combined PnL-$109.3

Down — 45%Up — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 46.6¢	$65.74	$84.59	+$18.85	46% 40118-48047 (88165)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.6¢	$45.14	—	-$45.14
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.4¢	$20.6	$84.59	+$63.99
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Downavg 56.7¢	$102.33	$95.85	-$6.48	47% 6557-7261 (13818)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.7¢	$54.31	$95.85	+$41.54
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.9¢	$48.01	—	-$48.01
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 48.9¢	$79.33	$87.38	+$8.04	51% 10526-9985 (20511)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 57.3¢	$43.18	—	-$43.18	51% 12098-11574 (23672)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 53.8¢	$25.35	—	-$25.35	56% 8800-6875 (15675)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 58.7¢	$24.16	—	-$24.16	65% 114590-61630 (176220)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 28.1¢	$4.4	$15.67	+$11.27	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 79¢	$8.54	$10.81	+$2.27	55% 51661-42834 (94495)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 60¢	$11.48	—	-$11.48	48% 10610-11273 (21883)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 37.1¢	$10.41	$9.58	+$0.01	65% 130293-70158 (200451)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 45.7¢	$4.57	—	-$4.57	56% 77408-59804 (137212)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 40.7¢	$1.77	$4.35	+$2.58	63% 42447-25170 (67617)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 36¢	$0.56	—	-$0.56	58% 63311-46525 (109836)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$65.74

Value

$84.59

PnL

+$18.85

Record

46%

40118-48047 (88165)

Both legs:

Up$45.1446.6¢-$45.14

Down$20.624.4¢+$63.99

asdcaxzARB<$100

Invested

$102.33

Value

$95.85

PnL

-$6.48

Record

47%

6557-7261 (13818)

Both legs:

Down$54.3156.7¢+$41.54

Up$48.0159.9¢-$48.01

Invested

$79.33

Value

$87.38

PnL

+$8.04

Record

51%

10526-9985 (20511)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$43.18

Value

—

PnL

-$43.18

Record

51%

12098-11574 (23672)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$25.35

Value

—

PnL

-$25.35

Record

56%

8800-6875 (15675)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$24.16

Value

—

PnL

-$24.16

Record

65%

114590-61630 (176220)

Invested

$4.4

Value

$15.67

PnL

+$11.27

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$8.54

Value

$10.81

PnL

+$2.27

Record

55%

51661-42834 (94495)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$11.48

Value

—

PnL

-$11.48

Record

48%

10610-11273 (21883)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$10.41

Value

$9.58

PnL

+$0.01

Record

65%

130293-70158 (200451)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$4.57

Value

—

PnL

-$4.57

Record

56%

77408-59804 (137212)

Invested

$1.77

Value

$4.35

PnL

+$2.58

Record

63%

42447-25170 (67617)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$0.56

Value

—

PnL

-$0.56

Record

58%

63311-46525 (109836)

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xd02077b5...044fbf

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794015600

Traders in this Market

pspspsps5

Arbitrage — excluded

asdcaxz

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm2

Down — $87.38

blue.birds

Up — $0

13897651

Up — $0

antsaslyku

Up — $0

asdaefef

Down — $15.67

MayorMamdani

Down — $10.81

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $9.58

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