Solana Up or Down - November 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (44%) · Down at 100¢ · $409 held · ended Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Down
9
Down 44%
$409.11
$1.67
94.5¢ → 99.5¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $266.56 | $267.96 | +$1.41 | 89% 29224-3554 (32778) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 34.8¢ | $56.13 | $52.64 | -$3.49 | 51% 12016-11488 (23504) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 75.3¢ | $25.02 | $20.85 | -$4.17 | 51% 10467-9935 (20402) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 17.7¢ | $17.29 | $20.76 | +$3.47 | 47% 6472-7172 (13644) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 49.2¢ | $16.09 | $16.1 | +$0.01 | 49% 80904-84349 (165253) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 58.4¢ | $8.18 | $13.93 | +$5.75 | 55% 51621-42810 (94431) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 58.7¢ | $9.88 | $9.36 | -$0.52 | 65% 114535-61562 (176097) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $5.6 | $5 | -$0.6 | 45% 40037-47965 (88002) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 53.7¢ | $2.69 | $2.5 | -$0.19 | 65% 130170-70085 (200255) |
Invested
$266.56
Value
$267.96
PnL
+$1.41
Record
89%
29224-3554 (32778)
Invested
$56.13
Value
$52.64
PnL
-$3.49
Record
51%
12016-11488 (23504)
Invested
$25.02
Value
$20.85
PnL
-$4.17
Record
51%
10467-9935 (20402)
Invested
$17.29
Value
$20.76
PnL
+$3.47
Record
47%
6472-7172 (13644)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$16.09
Value
$16.1
PnL
+$0.01
Record
49%
80904-84349 (165253)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$8.18
Value
$13.93
PnL
+$5.75
Record
55%
51621-42810 (94431)
Invested
$9.88
Value
$9.36
PnL
-$0.52
Record
65%
114535-61562 (176097)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$5.6
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.6
Record
45%
40037-47965 (88002)
Invested
$2.69
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$0.19
Record
65%
130170-70085 (200255)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.