Solana Up or Down - November 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Up (71%) · Up at 100¢ · $131 held · ended Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Up
7
Up 71%
$130.77
$7.62
Research grade
NeutralUp at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 44.8¢ | $34.28 | $48.04 | +$13.76 | 49% 80904-84349 (165253) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $25.09 | $35.03 | +$9.94 | 45% 40037-47965 (88002) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 72.4¢ | $15.38 | $14.83 | -$0.55 | 47% 6472-7172 (13644) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 58.7¢ | $14.68 | $14.5 | -$0.18 | 51% 12016-11488 (23504) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 84¢ | $12.8 | $10.92 | -$1.88 | 65% 130170-70085 (200255) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 38.5¢ | $10.18 | $7.44 | -$2.74 | 65% 114535-61562 (176097) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $10.75 | $0.01 | -$10.74 | 51% 10467-9935 (20402) |
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$34.28
Value
$48.04
PnL
+$13.76
Record
49%
80904-84349 (165253)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$25.09
Value
$35.03
PnL
+$9.94
Record
45%
40037-47965 (88002)
Invested
$15.38
Value
$14.83
PnL
-$0.55
Record
47%
6472-7172 (13644)
Invested
$14.68
Value
$14.5
PnL
-$0.18
Record
51%
12016-11488 (23504)
Invested
$12.8
Value
$10.92
PnL
-$1.88
Record
65%
130170-70085 (200255)
Invested
$10.18
Value
$7.44
PnL
-$2.74
Record
65%
114535-61562 (176097)
Invested
$10.75
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$10.74
Record
51%
10467-9935 (20402)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.