Solana Up or Down - November 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Up (100%) · Up at 100¢ · $75 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Up
6
Up 100%
$75.08
-$4.01
Research grade
NeutralUp at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 77.6¢ | $23.4 | $29.25 | +$5.85 | 65% 126454-67593 (194047) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $23.85 | $23.44 | -$0.4 | 46% 38677-45770 (84447) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 69.3¢ | $13.85 | $10.7 | -$3.15 | 64% 24882-13745 (38627) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 85.4¢ | $9.57 | $5.66 | -$3.91 | 66% 127109-65406 (192515) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 86¢ | $6.09 | $3.58 | -$2.51 | 61% 96050-60547 (156597) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $2.33 | $2.45 | +$0.12 | 51% 8411-7930 (16341) |
Invested
$23.4
Value
$29.25
PnL
+$5.85
Record
65%
126454-67593 (194047)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$23.85
Value
$23.44
PnL
-$0.4
Record
46%
38677-45770 (84447)
Invested
$13.85
Value
$10.7
PnL
-$3.15
Record
64%
24882-13745 (38627)
Invested
$9.57
Value
$5.66
PnL
-$3.91
Record
66%
127109-65406 (192515)
Invested
$6.09
Value
$3.58
PnL
-$2.51
Record
61%
96050-60547 (156597)
Invested
$2.33
Value
$2.45
PnL
+$0.12
Record
51%
8411-7930 (16341)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.