Solana Up or Down - November 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Up (83%) · Up at 100¢ · $107 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Up
6
Up 83%
$106.71
-$19.39
72.2¢ → 100¢
+38% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 84.3¢ | $70.24 | $46.27 | -$23.97 | 65% 126454-67593 (194047) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $18.79 | $21.95 | +$3.16 | 51% 8411-7930 (16341) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 62.2¢ | $16.4 | $15.1 | -$1.3 | 64% 24882-13745 (38627) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $11.88 | $11.82 | -$0.06 | 61% 96050-60547 (156597) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 4.2¢ | $0.6 | $7.02 | +$6.42 | 59% 62677-43754 (106431) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 91¢ | $8.19 | $4.55 | -$3.64 | 66% 127109-65406 (192515) |
Invested
$70.24
Value
$46.27
PnL
-$23.97
Record
65%
126454-67593 (194047)
Invested
$18.79
Value
$21.95
PnL
+$3.16
Record
51%
8411-7930 (16341)
Invested
$16.4
Value
$15.1
PnL
-$1.3
Record
64%
24882-13745 (38627)
Invested
$11.88
Value
$11.82
PnL
-$0.06
Record
61%
96050-60547 (156597)
Invested
$0.6
Value
$7.02
PnL
+$6.42
Record
59%
62677-43754 (106431)
Invested
$8.19
Value
$4.55
PnL
-$3.64
Record
66%
127109-65406 (192515)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.