Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Solana Up or Down - November 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
7
Down 71%
3 arb excluded
$1.0K
-$103.75
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.7¢ | $510.74 | $498.03 | -$4.07 | 54% 4416-3739 (8155) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.7¢ | $253.43 | — | -$252.3 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.5¢ | $246.33 | $498.03 | +$248.23 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 45.5¢ | $273.63 | $331.48 | +$57.85 | 49% 3753-3853 (7606) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 12.7¢ | $41.94 | $331.48 | +$289.54 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.5¢ | $231.69 | — | -$231.69 | |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eARB<$100 | Downavg 73.8¢ | $132.79 | $100 | -$32.79 | 57% 4084-3020 (7104) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 73.8¢ | $73.78 | $100 | +$26.22 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 68.5¢ | $59.01 | — | -$59.01 | |
 cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Upavg 86¢ | $78.26 | — | -$78.26 | 50% 1805-1831 (3636) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $90.15 | $60 | -$7.82 | 54% 2814-2386 (5200) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $21.9 | $30 | +$8.1 | 52% 1730-1622 (3352) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 12.7¢ | $4.45 | — | -$4.45 | 44% 2501-3236 (5737) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 10¢ | $52.43 | $10.5 | -$25.39 | 60% 4369-2959 (7328) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $7.08 | $7.15 | +$0.07 | 51% 2283-2160 (4443) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 20¢ | $1 | $5 | +$4 | 48% 2635-2900 (5535) |
Invested
$510.74
Value
$498.03
PnL
-$4.07
Record
54%
4416-3739 (8155)
Both legs:
Invested
$273.63
Value
$331.48
PnL
+$57.85
Record
49%
3753-3853 (7606)
Both legs:
Invested
$132.79
Value
$100
PnL
-$32.79
Record
57%
4084-3020 (7104)
Both legs:
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$78.26
Value
—
PnL
-$78.26
Record
50%
1805-1831 (3636)
Invested
$90.15
Value
$60
PnL
-$7.82
Record
54%
2814-2386 (5200)
Invested
$21.9
Value
$30
PnL
+$8.1
Record
52%
1730-1622 (3352)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$4.45
Value
—
PnL
-$4.45
Record
44%
2501-3236 (5737)
Invested
$52.43
Value
$10.5
PnL
-$25.39
Record
60%
4369-2959 (7328)
Invested
$7.08
Value
$7.15
PnL
+$0.07
Record
51%
2283-2160 (4443)
Invested
$1
Value
$5
PnL
+$4
Record
48%
2635-2900 (5535)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
ARBArbitrage — excluded
cryingbabydicer87
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
Down — $60
almach
Down — $30
G-Penis-Monster
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
Down — $10.5
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $7.15
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $5