Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
5
Up 80%
1 arb excluded
$551
-$330.55
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 51.2¢ | $525.9 | $490 | -$13.28 | 54% 4350-3681 (8031) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.2¢ | $260.54 | — | -$255.98 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $245 | $490 | +$242.7 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 72.3¢ | $324.51 | — | -$319.41 | 49% 3684-3801 (7485) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100 | Downavg 44.7¢ | $27.26 | $61 | +$33.74 | 58% 4041-2969 (7010) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 51.7¢ | $62.91 | — | -$42 | 54% 2777-2356 (5133) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 23¢ | $1.38 | — | -$1.38 | 43% 2188-2930 (5118) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 15¢ | $1.5 | — | -$1.5 | 44% 2472-3195 (5667) |
Invested
$525.9
Value
$490
PnL
-$13.28
Record
54%
4350-3681 (8031)
Both legs:
Invested
$324.51
Value
—
PnL
-$319.41
Record
49%
3684-3801 (7485)
Invested
$27.26
Value
$61
PnL
+$33.74
Record
58%
4041-2969 (7010)
Invested
$62.91
Value
—
PnL
-$42
Record
54%
2777-2356 (5133)
Invested
$1.38
Value
—
PnL
-$1.38
Record
43%
2188-2930 (5118)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$1.5
Value
—
PnL
-$1.5
Record
44%
2472-3195 (5667)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $61
ply-pm2
CTRUp — $0
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
CTRUp — $0
G-Penis-Monster
CTRUp — $0