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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

Resolved Up. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Down 44%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$777.45

Combined PnL

-$154.04

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares184

Combined PnL-$181.02

Up5 traders

Total Value$39.02

Total Shares39

Combined PnL+$26.98

Down — 44%Up — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.9¢	$513.84	$498.53	+$10.19	54% 4282-3627 (7909)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.5¢	$241.72	$498.53	+$252.9
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$246.9	—	-$242.71
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 72.9¢	$159.15	$239.89	+$80.74	49% 3651-3756 (7407)
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.1¢	$48.29	$239.89	+$191.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.9¢	$110.86	—	-$110.86
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 76.5¢	$78.84	—	-$54.57	54% 2739-2328 (5067)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 84¢	$11.95	—	-$7.7	48% 2553-2774 (5327)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 30.8¢	$3.7	$12	+$8.3	42% 2132-2886 (5018)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$5	—	-$5	60% 4284-2912 (7196)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 29.2¢	$2.92	$10	+$7.08	48% 2576-2827 (5403)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 38¢	$1.15	$3.02	+$1.87	47% 2471-2739 (5210)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Upavg 25¢	$1.75	$7	+$5.25	50% 1774-1809 (3583)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 36¢	$2.52	$7	+$4.48	50% 2877-2870 (5747)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Downavg 86.8¢	$113.75	—	-$113.75	58% 4023-2943 (6966)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$513.84

Value

$498.53

PnL

+$10.19

Record

54%

4282-3627 (7909)

Both legs:

Up$241.7248.5¢+$252.9

Down$246.949.9¢-$242.71

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$159.15

Value

$239.89

PnL

+$80.74

Record

49%

3651-3756 (7407)

Both legs:

Up$48.2920.1¢+$191.6

Down$110.8672.9¢-$110.86

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$78.84

Value

—

PnL

-$54.57

Record

54%

2739-2328 (5067)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$11.95

Value

—

PnL

-$7.7

Record

48%

2553-2774 (5327)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$3.7

Value

$12

PnL

+$8.3

Record

42%

2132-2886 (5018)

Invested

$5

Value

—

PnL

-$5

Record

60%

4284-2912 (7196)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$2.92

Value

$10

PnL

+$7.08

Record

48%

2576-2827 (5403)

Invested

$1.15

Value

$3.02

PnL

+$1.87

Record

47%

2471-2739 (5210)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$1.75

Value

$7

PnL

+$5.25

Record

50%

1774-1809 (3583)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$2.52

Value

$7

PnL

+$4.48

Record

50%

2877-2870 (5747)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Invested

$113.75

Value

—

PnL

-$113.75

Record

58%

4023-2943 (6966)

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xd07aa547...9cd9cc

Slug

sol-updown-15m-1794770100

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm2

Down — $0

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $0

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $12

aaa221

Down — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $10

ohioism

Up — $3.02

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $7

dvasdkasodk

Up — $7

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