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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET

Resolved Up. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Down 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$943.47

Combined PnL

-$86.04

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$453.47

Total Shares453

Combined PnL+$203.8

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares424

Combined PnL-$289.83

Up — 45%Down — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.7¢	$508.5	$490	-$10.6	54% 4282-3627 (7909)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$245	$490	+$241.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.7¢	$252.06	—	-$252.1
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 18¢	$46.65	$259.16	+$212.51	42% 2132-2886 (5018)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Downavg 52.2¢	$288.43	—	-$277.83	49% 3651-3756 (7407)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$89.1	$90	+$0.9	98% 4560-95 (4655)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 69.8¢	$83.07	$60.31	-$22.76	54% 2739-2328 (5067)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Upavg 52¢	$13	$25	+$12	49% 2537-2616 (5153)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 94¢	$17.86	$19	+$1.14	50% 2877-2870 (5747)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 38¢	$3.8	—	-$3.8	47% 2471-2739 (5210)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 34.2¢	$2.82	—	-$2.82	50% 1774-1809 (3583)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 35¢	$0.7	—	-$0.7	48% 2553-2774 (5327)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Downavg 36¢	$7.5	—	-$1.5	58% 4023-2943 (6966)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 84¢	$10.26	—	-$3.18	60% 4284-2912 (7196)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$508.5

Value

$490

PnL

-$10.6

Record

54%

4282-3627 (7909)

Both legs:

Up$24550¢+$241.5

Down$252.0650.7¢-$252.1

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$46.65

Value

$259.16

PnL

+$212.51

Record

42%

2132-2886 (5018)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$288.43

Value

—

PnL

-$277.83

Record

49%

3651-3756 (7407)

Invested

$89.1

Value

$90

PnL

+$0.9

Record

98%

4560-95 (4655)

Invested

$83.07

Value

$60.31

PnL

-$22.76

Record

54%

2739-2328 (5067)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$13

Value

$25

PnL

+$12

Record

49%

2537-2616 (5153)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$17.86

Value

$19

PnL

+$1.14

Record

50%

2877-2870 (5747)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$3.8

Value

—

PnL

-$3.8

Record

47%

2471-2739 (5210)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$2.82

Value

—

PnL

-$2.82

Record

50%

1774-1809 (3583)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$0.7

Value

—

PnL

-$0.7

Record

48%

2553-2774 (5327)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$7.5

Value

—

PnL

-$1.5

Record

58%

4023-2943 (6966)

Invested

$10.26

Value

—

PnL

-$3.18

Record

60%

4284-2912 (7196)

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb7ca0069...92dbc2

Slug

sol-updown-15m-1794768300

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $259.16

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $0

hoodquant

Up — $90

ply-pm2

Up — $60.31

uninformedfloww

Up — $25

dvasdkasodk

Up — $19

ohioism

Down — $0

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $0

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $0

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