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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET

Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

7

Down 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$655

Combined PnL

-$63.21

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up2 traders

Total Value$150

Total Shares150

Combined PnL-$17.3

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares158

Combined PnL-$45.91

Up — 29%Down — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.8¢	$515.73	$505	-$0.5	54% 4218-3562 (7780)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.8¢	$256.35	$505	+$249.65
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$246.82	—	-$250.15
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 75¢	$107.86	$90	-$17.86	49% 3629-3730 (7359)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 70.3¢	$59.44	$60	+$0.56	54% 2708-2292 (5000)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 33¢	$2.46	—	-$2.46	49% 2495-2563 (5058)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 16.4¢	$3.92	—	-$3.92	49% 1742-1781 (3523)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.1	—	-$0.1	36% 1488-2638 (4126)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 3¢	$0.06	—	-$0.06	42% 2086-2846 (4932)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Downavg 34.5¢	$39.37	—	-$39.37	58% 4006-2920 (6926)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$515.73

Value

$505

PnL

-$0.5

Record

54%

4218-3562 (7780)

Both legs:

Up$256.3550.8¢+$249.65

Down$246.8249.9¢-$250.15

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$107.86

Value

$90

PnL

-$17.86

Record

49%

3629-3730 (7359)

Invested

$59.44

Value

$60

PnL

+$0.56

Record

54%

2708-2292 (5000)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$2.46

Value

—

PnL

-$2.46

Record

49%

2495-2563 (5058)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$3.92

Value

—

PnL

-$3.92

Record

49%

1742-1781 (3523)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.1

Value

—

PnL

-$0.1

Record

36%

1488-2638 (4126)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$0.06

Value

—

PnL

-$0.06

Record

42%

2086-2846 (4932)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$39.37

Value

—

PnL

-$39.37

Record

58%

4006-2920 (6926)

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb6f9eca2...dea9d5

Slug

sol-updown-15m-1794762900

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $90

ply-pm2

Up — $60

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $0

antsaslyku

Down — $0

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $0

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $0

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