Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (99%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Solana Up or Down - November 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Up (78%) · Up at 1.0¢ · $558 held · ends Nov 15

Up1¢Down99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 78%

Total Value

$558.01

Combined PnL

-$78.45

Smart Money Entry

50.3¢ → 1¢

-98% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Down 99%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$515.85

Total Shares694

Combined PnL-$80.29

Down2 traders

Total Value$42.16

Total Shares45

Combined PnL+$1.84

Up — 78%Down — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$502.65	$500.32	+$0.32	54% 4094-3445 (7539)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 53.8¢	$14.3	$22.1	+$7.8	60% 4136-2815 (6951)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 94¢	$56.59	$20.06	-$5.96	54% 2644-2228 (4872)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 65.5¢	$7.86	$6	-$1.86	42% 2015-2741 (4756)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 25¢	$2.5	$3	+$0.5	48% 2373-2615 (4988)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 56¢	$56.52	$2.53	-$54	58% 3966-2891 (6857)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 60¢	$3	$2.5	-$0.5	50% 2760-2748 (5508)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 23.5¢	$7.05	$0.75	-$6.3	44% 2349-3036 (5385)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 64¢	$19.2	$0.75	-$18.45	49% 2434-2485 (4919)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$502.65

Value

$500.32

PnL

+$0.32

Record

54%

4094-3445 (7539)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$14.3

Value

$22.1

PnL

+$7.8

Record

60%

4136-2815 (6951)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$56.59

Value

$20.06

PnL

-$5.96

Record

54%

2644-2228 (4872)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$7.86

Value

PnL

-$1.86

Record

42%

2015-2741 (4756)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

PnL

+$0.5

Record

48%

2373-2615 (4988)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$56.52

Value

$2.53

PnL

-$54

Record

58%

3966-2891 (6857)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

50%

2760-2748 (5508)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$7.05

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$6.3

Record

44%

2349-3036 (5385)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$19.2

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$18.45

Record

49%

2434-2485 (4919)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Down 99%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.1%

1.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4579.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

4679.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.