Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Back to Markets

Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Up 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$539.26

Combined PnL

-$181.46

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares431

Combined PnL-$187.23

Down3 traders

Total Value$39.08

Total Shares39

Combined PnL+$5.77

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.1¢	$512.39	$500.18	+$10.13	54% 4094-3445 (7539)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.1¢	$245.7	$500.18	+$255.03
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.1¢	$250.59	—	-$244.9
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 48.2¢	$81.37	—	-$81.37	54% 2644-2228 (4872)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 21¢	$18.9	—	-$18.9	49% 3552-3629 (7181)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$18.97	$19.16	+$0.19	98% 4362-90 (4452)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 97.9¢	$15.18	$13.92	-$1.26	50% 2760-2748 (5508)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 30.8¢	$13.9	—	-$10.18	48% 2474-2726 (5200)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Downavg 22¢	$2.64	$6	+$6.84	42% 2015-2741 (4756)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 41¢	$2.53	—	-$2.53	50% 1714-1745 (3459)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 19.6¢	$23.31	—	-$23.31	49% 2434-2485 (4919)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 50.6¢	$50.95	—	-$50.95	58% 3966-2891 (6857)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$512.39

Value

$500.18

PnL

+$10.13

Record

54%

4094-3445 (7539)

Both legs:

Down$245.749.1¢+$255.03

Up$250.5950.1¢-$244.9

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$81.37

Value

—

PnL

-$81.37

Record

54%

2644-2228 (4872)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$18.9

Value

—

PnL

-$18.9

Record

49%

3552-3629 (7181)

Invested

$18.97

Value

$19.16

PnL

+$0.19

Record

98%

4362-90 (4452)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$15.18

Value

$13.92

PnL

-$1.26

Record

50%

2760-2748 (5508)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$13.9

Value

—

PnL

-$10.18

Record

48%

2474-2726 (5200)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$2.64

Value

$6

PnL

+$6.84

Record

42%

2015-2741 (4756)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$2.53

Value

—

PnL

-$2.53

Record

50%

1714-1745 (3459)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$23.31

Value

—

PnL

-$23.31

Record

49%

2434-2485 (4919)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$50.95

Value

—

PnL

-$50.95

Record

58%

3966-2891 (6857)

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x1df84a8d...ad8e95

Slug

sol-updown-15m-1794748500

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm2

Up — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

hoodquant

Down — $19.16

dvasdkasodk

Down — $13.92

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $0

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $6

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $0

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $0

Trade on Polymarket