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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

Resolved Up. 36% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Down 36%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$86.71

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 11 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$213.98

Total Shares214

Combined PnL+$59.49

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares331

Combined PnL-$146.2

Up — 64%Down — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.2¢	$508.76	$498.84	+$6.54	54% 4094-3445 (7539)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.6¢	$242.94	—	-$244.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.2¢	$250.3	$498.84	+$250.64
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 51.5¢	$232.12	$347.77	+$115.66	49% 3552-3629 (7181)
└ Down leg	Downavg 18.4¢	$53.13	—	-$53.13
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.5¢	$178.99	$347.77	+$168.79
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$84.15	$85	+$0.85	98% 4362-90 (4452)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 61.3¢	$32.2	$41.79	+$9.59	54% 2644-2228 (4872)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Upavg 20.8¢	$6.69	$32.19	+$25.5	50% 1714-1745 (3459)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 44¢	$4.4	$10	+$5.6	44% 2349-3036 (5385)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Upavg 55¢	$13.75	$25	+$11.25	49% 2434-2485 (4919)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$7.34	—	-$6.4	60% 4136-2815 (6951)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 39.5¢	$4.74	—	-$4.74	42% 2015-2741 (4756)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 75¢	$11.25	$15	+$3.75	48% 2474-2726 (5200)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 15.2¢	$1.12	—	-$1.12	50% 2760-2748 (5508)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 41¢	$2.05	$5	+$2.95	48% 2455-2651 (5106)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Downavg 44.9¢	$133.94	—	-$133.94	58% 3966-2891 (6857)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$508.76

Value

$498.84

PnL

+$6.54

Record

54%

4094-3445 (7539)

Both legs:

Down$242.9449.6¢-$244.1

Up$250.350.2¢+$250.64

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$232.12

Value

$347.77

PnL

+$115.66

Record

49%

3552-3629 (7181)

Both legs:

Down$53.1318.4¢-$53.13

Up$178.9951.5¢+$168.79

Invested

$84.15

Value

$85

PnL

+$0.85

Record

98%

4362-90 (4452)

Invested

$32.2

Value

$41.79

PnL

+$9.59

Record

54%

2644-2228 (4872)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$6.69

Value

$32.19

PnL

+$25.5

Record

50%

1714-1745 (3459)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

$10

PnL

+$5.6

Record

44%

2349-3036 (5385)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$13.75

Value

$25

PnL

+$11.25

Record

49%

2434-2485 (4919)

Invested

$7.34

Value

—

PnL

-$6.4

Record

60%

4136-2815 (6951)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$4.74

Value

—

PnL

-$4.74

Record

42%

2015-2741 (4756)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$11.25

Value

$15

PnL

+$3.75

Record

48%

2474-2726 (5200)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.12

Value

—

PnL

-$1.12

Record

50%

2760-2748 (5508)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$2.05

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.95

Record

48%

2455-2651 (5106)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Invested

$133.94

Value

—

PnL

-$133.94

Record

58%

3966-2891 (6857)

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 11 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x8aa67228...9fc55a

Slug

sol-updown-15m-1794745800

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Up — $85

ply-pm2

Up — $41.79

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $32.19

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $10

uninformedfloww

Up — $25

aaa221

Down — $0

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $15

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