Solana Up or Down - November 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Down (43%) · Down at 100¢ · $558 held · ended Nov 15

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 43%

Total Value

$558.47

Combined PnL

-$50.98

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 100¢

+94% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders

Total Value$524.55

Total Shares526

Combined PnL-$6.44

Up4 traders

Total Value$33.91

Total Shares235

Combined PnL-$44.54

Down — 43%Up — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.9¢	$515.44	$500.29	-$5.29	54% 3980-3330 (7310)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 43¢	$15.05	$17.5	+$2.45	58% 3933-2861 (6794)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 65.1¢	$18.4	$17.07	-$1.33	55% 2589-2161 (4750)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 30¢	$57.73	$8.88	-$48.84	50% 3495-3507 (7002)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Downavg 58.5¢	$7.02	$7.2	+$0.18	42% 1925-2669 (4594)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 28.7¢	$4.3	$6.15	+$1.85	44% 2305-2951 (5256)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 23¢	$1.38	$1.38	+$0	48% 2311-2552 (4863)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$515.44

Value

$500.29

PnL

-$5.29

Record

54%

3980-3330 (7310)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$15.05

Value

$17.5

PnL

+$2.45

Record

58%

3933-2861 (6794)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$18.4

Value

$17.07

PnL

-$1.33

Record

55%

2589-2161 (4750)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$57.73

Value

$8.88

PnL

-$48.84

Record

50%

3495-3507 (7002)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Down

Invested

$7.02

Value

$7.2

PnL

+$0.18

Record

42%

1925-2669 (4594)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$4.3

Value

$6.15

PnL

+$1.85

Record

44%

2305-2951 (5256)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$1.38

Value

$1.38

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2311-2552 (4863)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.