Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 7 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Solana Up or Down - November 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET

7 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Up (41%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 41%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$415.81

Smart Money Entry

51.1¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 17 top traders (41%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,505

Combined PnL+$566.7

Up7 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,949

Combined PnL-$150.89

Down — 59%Up — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Downavg 54.4¢	$622.75	$1.1K	+$521.38	42% 1920-2608 (4528)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 60.8¢	$996.64	$926.24	-$70.4	50% 3476-3482 (6958)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$508.67	$490.17	+$7.34	54% 3939-3307 (7246)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Upavg 50.2¢	$243.35	$106.1	-$86.51	58% 3913-2854 (6767)
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 48.7¢	$109.96	$93.45	+$9.02	54% 2562-2153 (4715)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 52¢	$49.92	$80.64	+$30.72	50% 1672-1702 (3374)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 50.5¢	$35.56	$59.92	+$24.36	51% 1567-1482 (3049)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 67¢	$50.25	$39.97	+$0.38	48% 2398-2644 (5042)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 57¢	$17.1	$14.85	-$2.25	51% 1570-1480 (3050)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 55¢	$16.5	$14.85	-$1.65	51% 4812-4602 (9414)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 67¢	$10.8	$10.4	-$0.4	48% 2388-2566 (4954)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 67¢	$10.65	$10.25	-$0.4	70% 1747-744 (2491)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 38.2¢	$9.55	$5	-$4.55	47% 2293-2538 (4831)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 48¢	$2.88	$3.09	+$0.21	44% 2289-2937 (5226)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 98¢	$2.47	$2.12	-$0.35	98% 4191-88 (4279)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$1.8	$0.9	-$0.9	50% 2671-2654 (5325)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 53.9¢	$55.04	$0.81	-$10.18	60% 4018-2726 (6744)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down

Invested

$622.75

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$521.38

Record

42%

1920-2608 (4528)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$996.64

Value

$926.24

PnL

-$70.4

Record

50%

3476-3482 (6958)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$508.67

Value

$490.17

PnL

+$7.34

Record

54%

3939-3307 (7246)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Invested

$243.35

Value

$106.1

PnL

-$86.51

Record

58%

3913-2854 (6767)

ply-pm2

Down

Invested

$109.96

Value

$93.45

PnL

+$9.02

Record

54%

2562-2153 (4715)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$49.92

Value

$80.64

PnL

+$30.72

Record

50%

1672-1702 (3374)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$35.56

Value

$59.92

PnL

+$24.36

Record

51%

1567-1482 (3049)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$50.25

Value

$39.97

PnL

+$0.38

Record

48%

2398-2644 (5042)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$17.1

Value

$14.85

PnL

-$2.25

Record

51%

1570-1480 (3050)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$16.5

Value

$14.85

PnL

-$1.65

Record

51%

4812-4602 (9414)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$10.8

Value

$10.4

PnL

-$0.4

Record

48%

2388-2566 (4954)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$10.65

Value

$10.25

PnL

-$0.4

Record

70%

1747-744 (2491)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$9.55

Value

PnL

-$4.55

Record

47%

2293-2538 (4831)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$2.88

Value

$3.09

PnL

+$0.21

Record

44%

2289-2937 (5226)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$2.47

Value

$2.12

PnL

-$0.35

Record

98%

4191-88 (4279)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$0.9

Record

50%

2671-2654 (5325)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$55.04

Value

$0.81

PnL

-$10.18

Record

60%

4018-2726 (6744)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 17 top traders (41%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.