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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET

Resolved Up. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Down 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$546.79

Combined PnL

-$318.64

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares446

Combined PnL-$330.64

Up2 traders

Total Value$55.21

Total Shares55

Combined PnL+$12

Down — 78%Up — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$502.11	$491.59	-$5.23	54% 3939-3307 (7246)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$251.53	—	-$251.53
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$245.59	$491.59	+$246.3
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Downavg 57.4¢	$252.88	—	-$242.12	50% 3476-3482 (6958)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 63¢	$36.54	$40.89	+$5.13	60% 4018-2726 (6744)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 55¢	$25.9	—	-$25.9	54% 2562-2153 (4715)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Downavg 41.5¢	$50.76	—	-$50.76	58% 3913-2854 (6767)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 52¢	$7.45	$14.32	+$6.87	51% 2039-1965 (4004)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 15¢	$2.25	—	-$2.25	47% 2293-2538 (4831)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 18¢	$1.8	—	-$1.8	44% 2289-2937 (5226)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 39.3¢	$4.72	—	-$4.72	42% 1920-2608 (4528)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 42.4¢	$3.09	—	-$3.09	50% 1672-1702 (3374)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$502.11

Value

$491.59

PnL

-$5.23

Record

54%

3939-3307 (7246)

Both legs:

Down$251.5350¢-$251.53

Up$245.5950¢+$246.3

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$252.88

Value

—

PnL

-$242.12

Record

50%

3476-3482 (6958)

Invested

$36.54

Value

$40.89

PnL

+$5.13

Record

60%

4018-2726 (6744)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$25.9

Value

—

PnL

-$25.9

Record

54%

2562-2153 (4715)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$50.76

Value

—

PnL

-$50.76

Record

58%

3913-2854 (6767)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$7.45

Value

$14.32

PnL

+$6.87

Record

51%

2039-1965 (4004)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$2.25

Value

—

PnL

-$2.25

Record

47%

2293-2538 (4831)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

—

PnL

-$1.8

Record

44%

2289-2937 (5226)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$4.72

Value

—

PnL

-$4.72

Record

42%

1920-2608 (4528)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$3.09

Value

—

PnL

-$3.09

Record

50%

1672-1702 (3374)

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x42e43a00...71953b

Slug

sol-updown-15m-1794728700

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $0

aaa221

Up — $40.89

ply-pm2

Down — $0

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $0

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $14.32

ohioism

Down — $0

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $0

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $0

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $0

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