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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

Resolved Up. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Down 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$661.89

Combined PnL

-$44.8

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$171.89

Total Shares172

Combined PnL+$5.38

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares359

Combined PnL-$50.18

Up — 44%Down — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.5¢	$502.5	$490	-$5.2	54% 3914-3284 (7198)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$245	$490	+$247.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.5¢	$252.5	—	-$252.5
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$99	$100	+$1	98% 4160-87 (4247)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Upavg 73.9¢	$23.65	$32	+$8.35	58% 3901-2845 (6746)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 82.3¢	$60.72	$30.01	-$5.64	54% 2550-2139 (4689)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 27.3¢	$8.72	—	-$8.72	43% 1909-2581 (4490)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 6.9¢	$25.88	—	-$25.88	50% 3448-3455 (6903)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$7.5	—	-$7.5	51% 2031-1950 (3981)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 29.3¢	$6.16	—	-$6.16	50% 1667-1698 (3365)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 75¢	$8.22	$9.88	+$1.66	60% 3996-2713 (6709)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 29¢	$1.92	—	-$1.92	50% 2651-2645 (5296)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$502.5

Value

$490

PnL

-$5.2

Record

54%

3914-3284 (7198)

Both legs:

Up$24550¢+$247.3

Down$252.549.5¢-$252.5

Invested

$99

Value

$100

PnL

+$1

Record

98%

4160-87 (4247)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Invested

$23.65

Value

$32

PnL

+$8.35

Record

58%

3901-2845 (6746)

Invested

$60.72

Value

$30.01

PnL

-$5.64

Record

54%

2550-2139 (4689)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$8.72

Value

—

PnL

-$8.72

Record

43%

1909-2581 (4490)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$25.88

Value

—

PnL

-$25.88

Record

50%

3448-3455 (6903)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$7.5

Value

—

PnL

-$7.5

Record

51%

2031-1950 (3981)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$6.16

Value

—

PnL

-$6.16

Record

50%

1667-1698 (3365)

Invested

$8.22

Value

$9.88

PnL

+$1.66

Record

60%

3996-2713 (6709)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.92

Value

—

PnL

-$1.92

Record

50%

2651-2645 (5296)

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x8553d557...e98021

Slug

sol-updown-15m-1794726900

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Up — $100

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $32

ply-pm2

Up — $30.01

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $0

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $0

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $0

aaa221

Up — $9.88

dvasdkasodk

Down — $0

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