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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET

Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

7

Up 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$684.78

Combined PnL

-$131.22

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down2 traders

Total Value$137

Total Shares137

Combined PnL+$45.92

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares595

Combined PnL-$177.14

Down — 29%Up — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.1¢	$505.4	$495	-$8.4	54% 3849-3219 (7068)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.1¢	$255.4	—	-$255.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$247.5	$495	+$247
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 68.3¢	$88.13	$127	+$39.87	58% 3865-2801 (6666)
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Downavg 79.1¢	$89.31	$52.78	-$19.23	54% 2509-2112 (4621)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.6¢	$28.09	—	-$29.84
└ Down leg	Downavg 79.1¢	$41.77	$52.78	+$10.61
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 16.7¢	$17.09	—	-$11.12	50% 1655-1677 (3332)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 31.1¢	$159.88	—	-$152.98	50% 3397-3361 (6758)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 42¢	$6.3	—	-$6.3	47% 2247-2492 (4739)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 39.5¢	$3.95	$10	+$6.05	47% 2348-2603 (4951)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 44¢	$2.64	—	-$2.64	43% 1879-2519 (4398)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 40¢	$4.1	—	-$4.1	50% 2598-2611 (5209)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$505.4

Value

$495

PnL

-$8.4

Record

54%

3849-3219 (7068)

Both legs:

Up$255.450.1¢-$255.4

Down$247.550¢+$247

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$88.13

Value

$127

PnL

+$39.87

Record

58%

3865-2801 (6666)

ply-pm2ARB<$100

Invested

$89.31

Value

$52.78

PnL

-$19.23

Record

54%

2509-2112 (4621)

Both legs:

Up$28.0950.6¢-$29.84

Down$41.7779.1¢+$10.61

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$17.09

Value

—

PnL

-$11.12

Record

50%

1655-1677 (3332)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$159.88

Value

—

PnL

-$152.98

Record

50%

3397-3361 (6758)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$6.3

Value

—

PnL

-$6.3

Record

47%

2247-2492 (4739)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$3.95

Value

$10

PnL

+$6.05

Record

47%

2348-2603 (4951)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$2.64

Value

—

PnL

-$2.64

Record

43%

1879-2519 (4398)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$4.1

Value

—

PnL

-$4.1

Record

50%

2598-2611 (5209)

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xd6bc0926...bc7f72

Slug

sol-updown-15m-1794717900

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $127

ply-pm2

Arbitrage — excluded

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

ohioism

Up — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $10

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $0

dvasdkasodk

Up — $0

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