Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (95%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Down (80%) · Down at 5.5¢ · $932 held · ends Nov 14

Up95¢Down5¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$932.27

Combined PnL

-$157.75

Smart Money Entry

55.4¢ → 5.5¢

-90% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidDown at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Up 95%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up95%

Down6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$307.02

Total Shares713

Combined PnL-$166.36

Up2 traders

Total Value$18.51

Total Shares24

Combined PnL+$8.61

Down — 80%Up — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.9¢	$527.24	$500.6	+$6.1	54% 3632-3064 (6696)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$251.8	$282.8	+$31
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.6¢	$250.29	$217.8	-$24.9
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Downavg 45.5¢	$161.41	$195.14	+$33.73	51% 3248-3166 (6414)
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Downavg 63.7¢	$120.62	$105.47	-$10.36	54% 2390-2039 (4429)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.9¢	$57.24	$65.55	+$8.17
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.7¢	$57.75	$39.91	-$18.52
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Downavg 59.5¢	$237.78	$33.96	-$203.82	58% 3692-2676 (6368)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 65¢	$24.3	$30	+$5.7	51% 1450-1401 (2851)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 66¢	$24.29	$30	+$5.71	51% 1455-1389 (2844)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 48.7¢	$8.76	$14.94	+$6.18	48% 2195-2413 (4608)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 65¢	$6.54	$8.6	+$2.06	51% 4704-4511 (9215)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 63.1¢	$14.56	$5.18	-$9.38	50% 1577-1608 (3185)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 19¢	$1.14	$3.57	+$2.43	42% 1736-2377 (4113)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 57¢	$2.85	$3.08	+$0.23	49% 2317-2371 (4688)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 13.2¢	$1.65	$1.06	-$0.59	50% 2462-2507 (4969)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$527.24

Value

$500.6

PnL

+$6.1

Record

54%

3632-3064 (6696)

Both legs:

Up$251.849.9¢+$31

Down$250.2950.6¢-$24.9

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Down

Invested

$161.41

Value

$195.14

PnL

+$33.73

Record

51%

3248-3166 (6414)

ply-pm2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$120.62

Value

$105.47

PnL

-$10.36

Record

54%

2390-2039 (4429)

Both legs:

Up$57.2448.9¢+$8.17

Down$57.7563.7¢-$18.52

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Down

Invested

$237.78

Value

$33.96

PnL

-$203.82

Record

58%

3692-2676 (6368)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$24.3

Value

$30

PnL

+$5.7

Record

51%

1450-1401 (2851)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$24.29

Value

$30

PnL

+$5.71

Record

51%

1455-1389 (2844)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$8.76

Value

$14.94

PnL

+$6.18

Record

48%

2195-2413 (4608)

bosonaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.54

Value

$8.6

PnL

+$2.06

Record

51%

4704-4511 (9215)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.56

Value

$5.18

PnL

-$9.38

Record

50%

1577-1608 (3185)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$1.14

Value

$3.57

PnL

+$2.43

Record

42%

1736-2377 (4113)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.85

Value

$3.08

PnL

+$0.23

Record

49%

2317-2371 (4688)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.06

PnL

-$0.59

Record

50%

2462-2507 (4969)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Up 95%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.9%

5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1343.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

1444.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.