Solana Up or Down - November 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Up (50%) · Up at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$235

Smart Money Entry

73.9¢ → 100¢

+35% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$528.15

Total Shares538

Combined PnL-$206.11

Down6 traders

Total Value$80.9

Total Shares488

Combined PnL-$28.89

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.3¢	$523.24	$503.62	+$3.35	54% 3546-3013 (6559)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.3¢	$255.1	$380.01	+$127.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.2¢	$248.29	$123.61	-$124.25
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 75.8¢	$609.01	$423.15	-$185.86	51% 3203-3131 (6334)
PL ply-pm2	Upavg 70.8¢	$120.8	$84.8	-$23.82	54% 2350-2009 (4359)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 60.5¢	$52.95	$68.73	+$15.78	49% 1545-1582 (3127)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Downavg 52.5¢	$29.87	$11.98	-$4.85	58% 3639-2637 (6276)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$7.41	$7.44	+$0.04	98% 3774-79 (3853)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 35¢	$4.2	$6	+$1.8	42% 1702-2303 (4005)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 51¢	$4.19	$4.11	-$0.08	51% 1914-1874 (3788)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 41.7¢	$15.5	$2.65	+$1.82	59% 3720-2542 (6262)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 8.1¢	$10.8	$0.07	-$10.74	44% 2099-2693 (4792)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 7¢	$8.75	$0.06	-$8.69	48% 2150-2369 (4519)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 10.7¢	$8.38	$0.04	-$8.34	50% 2427-2459 (4886)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 29.5¢	$12.08	$0.02	-$12.06	47% 2089-2333 (4422)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$523.24

Value

$503.62

PnL

+$3.35

Record

54%

3546-3013 (6559)

Both legs:

Up$255.150.3¢+$127.6

Down$248.2950.2¢-$124.25

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$609.01

Value

$423.15

PnL

-$185.86

Record

51%

3203-3131 (6334)

ply-pm2

Invested

$120.8

Value

$84.8

PnL

-$23.82

Record

54%

2350-2009 (4359)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$52.95

Value

$68.73

PnL

+$15.78

Record

49%

1545-1582 (3127)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$29.87

Value

$11.98

PnL

-$4.85

Record

58%

3639-2637 (6276)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$7.41

Value

$7.44

PnL

+$0.04

Record

98%

3774-79 (3853)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$4.2

Value

PnL

+$1.8

Record

42%

1702-2303 (4005)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$4.19

Value

$4.11

PnL

-$0.08

Record

51%

1914-1874 (3788)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$15.5

Value

$2.65

PnL

+$1.82

Record

59%

3720-2542 (6262)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.8

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$10.74

Record

44%

2099-2693 (4792)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.75

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$8.69

Record

48%

2150-2369 (4519)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.38

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$8.34

Record

50%

2427-2459 (4886)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$12.08

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$12.06

Record

47%

2089-2333 (4422)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.