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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

Resolved Up. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

6

Down 83%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$564.2

Combined PnL

-$51.06

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 6 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares87

Combined PnL-$53.37

Up1 trader

Total Value$5.37

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$2.31

Down — 83%Up — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$502.65	$497.83	-$3.83	54% 3514-2992 (6506)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$248.91	$497.83	+$248.83
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$252.65	—	-$252.65
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eARB<$100	Upavg 91¢	$98.91	$61	-$37.91	58% 3629-2629 (6258)
└ Up leg	Upavg 91¢	$55.51	$61	+$5.49
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.1¢	$43.4	—	-$43.4
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 49.2¢	$28.23	—	-$28.23	54% 2335-1997 (4332)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 42.5¢	$12.75	—	-$12.75	44% 2080-2676 (4756)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 45.9¢	$8.27	—	-$8.27	49% 1530-1579 (3109)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 57¢	$3.06	$5.37	+$2.31	59% 3698-2531 (6229)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 41¢	$2.12	—	-$2.12	50% 2267-2294 (4561)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 40¢	$2	—	-$2	48% 2176-2405 (4581)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$502.65

Value

$497.83

PnL

-$3.83

Record

54%

3514-2992 (6506)

Both legs:

Up$248.9150¢+$248.83

Down$252.6550¢-$252.65

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eARB<$100

Invested

$98.91

Value

$61

PnL

-$37.91

Record

58%

3629-2629 (6258)

Both legs:

Up$55.5191¢+$5.49

Down$43.454.1¢-$43.4

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$28.23

Value

—

PnL

-$28.23

Record

54%

2335-1997 (4332)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$12.75

Value

—

PnL

-$12.75

Record

44%

2080-2676 (4756)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$8.27

Value

—

PnL

-$8.27

Record

49%

1530-1579 (3109)

Invested

$3.06

Value

$5.37

PnL

+$2.31

Record

59%

3698-2531 (6229)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$2.12

Value

—

PnL

-$2.12

Record

50%

2267-2294 (4561)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$2

Value

—

PnL

-$2

Record

48%

2176-2405 (4581)

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 6 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xbb736dd4...47d5d0

Slug

sol-updown-15m-1794684600

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm2

Down — $0

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $0

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $0

aaa221

Up — $5.37

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $0

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