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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

7

Up 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$264.22

Combined PnL

-$488.98

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares527

Combined PnL-$494.98

Down3 traders

Total Value$120

Total Shares120

Combined PnL+$6

Up — 57%Down — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 49.9¢	$500.18	—	-$493.38	54% 3449-2937 (6386)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 73.5¢	$112.33	$144.22	+$31.89	51% 3103-3041 (6144)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.5¢	$106.03	$144.22	+$38.19
└ Up leg	Upavg 7¢	$6.3	—	-$6.3
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Downavg 93¢	$83.7	$90	+$6.3	58% 3610-2614 (6224)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 95¢	$19	$20	+$1	50% 2231-2229 (4460)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 71¢	$21.3	$10	-$1.3	54% 2295-1973 (4268)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 16.2¢	$1.35	—	-$1.35	49% 1497-1559 (3056)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 1.7¢	$0.21	—	-$0.21	42% 1643-2244 (3887)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	37% 1340-2240 (3580)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500.18

Value

—

PnL

-$493.38

Record

54%

3449-2937 (6386)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$112.33

Value

$144.22

PnL

+$31.89

Record

51%

3103-3041 (6144)

Both legs:

Down$106.0373.5¢+$38.19

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Invested

$83.7

Value

$90

PnL

+$6.3

Record

58%

3610-2614 (6224)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$19

Value

$20

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

2231-2229 (4460)

Invested

$21.3

Value

$10

PnL

-$1.3

Record

54%

2295-1973 (4268)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$1.35

Value

—

PnL

-$1.35

Record

49%

1497-1559 (3056)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$0.21

Value

—

PnL

-$0.21

Record

42%

1643-2244 (3887)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

37%

1340-2240 (3580)

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x90b3b876...6380f9

Slug

sol-updown-15m-1794678300

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $90

uninformedfloww

Down — $20

ply-pm2

Down — $10

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $0

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $0

antsaslyku

Up — $0

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