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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET

Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

5

Down 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$985.38

Combined PnL

-$159.96

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 5 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares374

Combined PnL-$165.47

Up1 trader

Total Value$0

Total Shares0

Combined PnL+$5.51

Down — 80%Up — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 54.1¢	$678.5	$489.04	-$189.46	50% 3041-2991 (6032)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.3¢	$324.43	$489.04	+$164.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.1¢	$354.07	—	-$354.07
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.7¢	$529.43	$496.34	-$1.82	54% 3373-2881 (6254)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.6¢	$246.41	$496.34	+$246.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.7¢	$252.65	—	-$248.42
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Downavg 42.9¢	$86.48	—	-$84.53	58% 3585-2599 (6184)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 42.7¢	$55.6	—	-$44.34	54% 2251-1949 (4200)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 36.4¢	$28.8	—	-$28.8	49% 1453-1538 (2991)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 30.8¢	$7.81	—	-$7.81	47% 1998-2233 (4231)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 59.6¢	$25.98	$0	+$5.51	59% 3587-2446 (6033)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$678.5

Value

$489.04

PnL

-$189.46

Record

50%

3041-2991 (6032)

Both legs:

Up$324.4366.3¢+$164.6

Down$354.0754.1¢-$354.07

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$529.43

Value

$496.34

PnL

-$1.82

Record

54%

3373-2881 (6254)

Both legs:

Up$246.4149.6¢+$246.6

Down$252.6549.7¢-$248.42

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$86.48

Value

—

PnL

-$84.53

Record

58%

3585-2599 (6184)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$55.6

Value

—

PnL

-$44.34

Record

54%

2251-1949 (4200)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$28.8

Value

—

PnL

-$28.8

Record

49%

1453-1538 (2991)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$7.81

Value

—

PnL

-$7.81

Record

47%

1998-2233 (4231)

Invested

$25.98

Value

$0

PnL

+$5.51

Record

59%

3587-2446 (6033)

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 5 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x31bee14a...cae07d

Slug

sol-updown-15m-1794670200

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $0

ply-pm2

Down — $0

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $0

ohioism

Down — $0

aaa221

Up — $0

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