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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

6

Down 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$537.94

Combined PnL

-$53.48

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares126

Combined PnL-$52.41

Up3 traders

Total Value$37.94

Total Shares38

Combined PnL-$1.07

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.1¢	$509.71	$500	-$2.18	54% 3302-2813 (6115)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.1¢	$250.7	$500	+$250.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.8¢	$250.39	—	-$252.48
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Downavg 39.9¢	$28.97	—	-$28.97	58% 3566-2579 (6145)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 81.4¢	$21.22	$21.51	+$3.48	60% 3539-2389 (5928)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 43.4¢	$16.84	—	-$16.84	50% 2139-2136 (4275)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 85¢	$71.81	$10.42	-$7.01	54% 2215-1915 (4130)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 59¢	$3.54	$6	+$2.46	42% 1545-2147 (3692)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 44¢	$6.6	—	-$6.6	47% 2034-2298 (4332)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$509.71

Value

$500

PnL

-$2.18

Record

54%

3302-2813 (6115)

Both legs:

Up$250.750.1¢+$250.3

Down$250.3949.8¢-$252.48

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$28.97

Value

—

PnL

-$28.97

Record

58%

3566-2579 (6145)

Invested

$21.22

Value

$21.51

PnL

+$3.48

Record

60%

3539-2389 (5928)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$16.84

Value

—

PnL

-$16.84

Record

50%

2139-2136 (4275)

Invested

$71.81

Value

$10.42

PnL

-$7.01

Record

54%

2215-1915 (4130)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$3.54

Value

$6

PnL

+$2.46

Record

42%

1545-2147 (3692)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$6.6

Value

—

PnL

-$6.6

Record

47%

2034-2298 (4332)

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x2022e685...de4124

Slug

sol-updown-15m-1794663000

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $0

aaa221

Up — $21.51

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

ply-pm2

Up — $10.42

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $6

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $0

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