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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Up 83%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$506.73
Combined PnL
-$30.28
Smart Money Signal
Up
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares107
Combined PnL-$37.28
Down1 trader
Total Value$14.73
Total Shares15
Combined PnL+$7
Up — 83%Down — 17%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.6¢ | $502.9 | $492 | -$5.22 | 54% 3273-2778 (6051) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $246 | $492 | +$247.68 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.6¢ | $252.9 | — | -$252.9 | |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $16.97 | — | -$16.97 | 54% 2198-1898 (4096) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 38¢ | $7.73 | $14.73 | +$7 | 60% 3515-2365 (5880) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 16.6¢ | $8.12 | — | -$8.12 | 42% 1520-2127 (3647) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Upavg 32.8¢ | $9.67 | — | -$9.67 | 58% 3558-2569 (6127) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $2.47 | — | -$2.47 | 50% 2116-2116 (4232) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 37% 1289-2149 (3438) |
BY
ByteBadger92ARB<$100Invested
$502.9
Value
$492
PnL
-$5.22
Record
54%
3273-2778 (6051)
Both legs:
Down$24650¢+$247.68
Up$252.949.6¢-$252.9
PL
ply-pm2CTR<$100Invested
$16.97
Value
—
PnL
-$16.97
Record
54%
2198-1898 (4096)
AA
aaa221<$100Invested
$7.73
Value
$14.73
PnL
+$7
Record
60%
3515-2365 (5880)
0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100Invested
$8.12
Value
—
PnL
-$8.12
Record
42%
1520-2127 (3647)
0X
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100Invested
$9.67
Value
—
PnL
-$9.67
Record
58%
3558-2569 (6127)
UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100Invested
$2.47
Value
—
PnL
-$2.47
Record
50%
2116-2116 (4232)
AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
37%
1289-2149 (3438)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x2dd5d83f...1a2848
Slug
sol-updown-15m-1794662100