Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Back to Markets

Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET

Resolved Up. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Down 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$577.26

Combined PnL

-$56.05

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$86.61

Total Shares87

Combined PnL+$52.57

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares127

Combined PnL-$108.62

Up — 38%Down — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 51¢	$516.85	$490.65	-$12.35	54% 3248-2750 (5998)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51¢	$259.95	—	-$257.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.4¢	$242.26	$490.65	+$244.75
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Upavg 27.5¢	$21.5	$69.76	+$48.26	58% 3554-2561 (6115)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 68.3¢	$42.04	—	-$42.04	50% 2099-2099 (4198)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 69.1¢	$49.99	—	-$49.99	54% 2187-1881 (4068)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$10.74	$10.85	+$0.11	98% 3400-72 (3472)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 30¢	$1.8	$6	+$4.2	42% 1499-2108 (3607)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 37¢	$1.57	—	-$1.57	48% 1389-1500 (2889)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$4.9	—	-$4.9	47% 2004-2262 (4266)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 62.4¢	$10.63	—	-$10.12	60% 3496-2347 (5843)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$516.85

Value

$490.65

PnL

-$12.35

Record

54%

3248-2750 (5998)

Both legs:

Down$259.9551¢-$257.1

Up$242.2649.4¢+$244.75

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Invested

$21.5

Value

$69.76

PnL

+$48.26

Record

58%

3554-2561 (6115)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$42.04

Value

—

PnL

-$42.04

Record

50%

2099-2099 (4198)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$49.99

Value

—

PnL

-$49.99

Record

54%

2187-1881 (4068)

Invested

$10.74

Value

$10.85

PnL

+$0.11

Record

98%

3400-72 (3472)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

$6

PnL

+$4.2

Record

42%

1499-2108 (3607)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$1.57

Value

—

PnL

-$1.57

Record

48%

1389-1500 (2889)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

—

PnL

-$4.9

Record

47%

2004-2262 (4266)

Invested

$10.63

Value

—

PnL

-$10.12

Record

60%

3496-2347 (5843)

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x645f49a4...6a3b6d

Slug

sol-updown-15m-1794658500

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $69.76

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

ply-pm2

Down — $0

hoodquant

Up — $10.85

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $6

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $0

aaa221

Down — $0

Trade on Polymarket