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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET

Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

7

Down 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$619.95

Combined PnL

$5.59

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$129.95

Total Shares130

Combined PnL+$17.09

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares65

Combined PnL-$11.5

Up — 43%Down — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.4¢	$501.7	$490	-$3.3	55% 3173-2646 (5819)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.4¢	$251.7	—	-$251.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$245	$490	+$248.4
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 81.7¢	$81.93	$100	+$18.07	51% 2914-2831 (5745)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 96.2¢	$16.36	$17	+$0.64	41% 1439-2039 (3478)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 94¢	$14.57	$12.95	-$1.62	60% 3418-2292 (5710)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 33.5¢	$6.7	—	-$6.7	54% 2138-1828 (3966)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 16¢	$1.6	—	-$1.6	44% 1886-2437 (4323)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 17¢	$1.7	—	-$1.7	48% 1903-2089 (3992)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Downavg 6¢	$1.5	—	-$1.5	58% 3530-2534 (6064)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$501.7

Value

$490

PnL

-$3.3

Record

55%

3173-2646 (5819)

Both legs:

Down$251.749.4¢-$251.7

Up$24550¢+$248.4

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$81.93

Value

$100

PnL

+$18.07

Record

51%

2914-2831 (5745)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$16.36

Value

$17

PnL

+$0.64

Record

41%

1439-2039 (3478)

Invested

$14.57

Value

$12.95

PnL

-$1.62

Record

60%

3418-2292 (5710)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$6.7

Value

—

PnL

-$6.7

Record

54%

2138-1828 (3966)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$1.6

Value

—

PnL

-$1.6

Record

44%

1886-2437 (4323)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$1.7

Value

—

PnL

-$1.7

Record

48%

1903-2089 (3992)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$1.5

Value

—

PnL

-$1.5

Record

58%

3530-2534 (6064)

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x080742e4...ab6e33

Slug

sol-updown-15m-1794646800

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $100

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $17

aaa221

Up — $12.95

ply-pm2

Down — $0

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $0

ohioism

Down — $0

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $0

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